Is the stock market about to crash?

Nobody can time a crash. But crashes rarely come out of a clear sky: valuations are stretched, the trend breaks, fear and borrowing costs jump, the economy turns. This page checks those warning signs every day.

35/100

Moderate crash risk

No crash signal, but shares are expensive

The S&P 500 is at or near a record high, 0.3% below its record of 7,799. None of the 5 near-term warning signs is on: the trend is up, volatility is low, credit is flowing and there's no recession signal.

Valuations are stretched (a CAPE of 41.4, market cap at 255% of GDP). That says a lot about how far shares could fall, and very little about when.

Market close 5 October 2026; checked 6 October at 6:38 am Brisbane time, and again every day. Not financial advice. How the score works

S&P 500: 7,774; Close on 5 Oct 2026
From its record: −0.3%; Record 7,799 on 13 Aug 2026
Vs 200-day average: +7.5%; Above the long-term trend
Past year: +15.8%; +13.6% this year

The warning signs

Each one is calm, worth watching, or a warning. Near-term signs say whether a fall may be starting; valuation says how far it could go.

Near-term warning signs

S&P 500 trend

Calm

+7.5%

20255 Oct 2026

The index is 7.5% above its 200-day average and the trend is up.

Price against its 200-day average. Above, with the 50-day above the 200-day, calm; a death cross watch; below the 200-day warning.

Source: S&P 500 via Yahoo Finance

Volatility (VIX)

Calm

15.5

20255 Oct 2026

Traders expect a quiet market. (Very low readings can also mean complacency.)

The market’s expected volatility over the next 30 days. Under 20 calm, 20–30 watch, 30+ warning.

Source: Cboe VIX via Yahoo Finance

Junk bond spreads

Calm

3.10%

20232 Oct 2026

Risky companies pay 3.10 points over Treasuries to borrow, up 0.36 in three months. Credit is flowing easily.

Extra yield on US high-yield bonds. Under 4 points calm, 4–6 (or up a point in three months) watch, 6+ warning.

Source: ICE BofA US High Yield spread, via FRED

Yield curve

Calm

+1.09

20202 Oct 2026

Positive (normal), and it’s been 2+ years since the last inversion ended.

10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield. Normal calm; inverted, or turned positive in the past 18 months, watch; turned positive in the past 6 months warning.

Source: US Treasury via FRED

Sahm rule

Calm

0.00

0.5

20161 Sept 2026

Unemployment isn’t rising fast enough to signal a recession.

Rise in the 3-month average US unemployment rate over its low of the past year, in points. Under 0.3 calm, 0.3–0.5 watch, 0.5+ warning (recession).

Source: Claudia Sahm, via FRED

Valuation

Shiller CAPE

Warning

41.4

19902 Oct 2026

Higher than 99% of months since 1871. The long-run median is 16; the record is 44.2 (Dec 1999).

Price over 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings. Under 25 calm, 25–32 watch, 32+ warning.

Source: multpl.com (Robert Shiller’s data)

Market cap to GDP

Warning

255%

70th

90th

19901 Apr 2026

US company shares are worth 255% of a year’s GDP, the highest since records began in 1947.

The “Buffett indicator”, against its own history: below the 70th percentile calm, 70th–90th watch, top 10% warning.

Source: Federal Reserve Z.1 and BEA, via FRED

The S&P 500 this year

Weekly closes against the 50- and 200-day averages. A fall through the 200-day line is often the first sign a correction is turning into something worse.

S&P 500
50-day average
200-day average

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000NovJanMarMayJulSept

6 Oct 2025S&P 5006,74050-day average6,504200-day average6,034

13 Oct 2025S&P 5006,65550-day average6,538200-day average6,053

20 Oct 2025S&P 5006,73550-day average6,571200-day average6,070

27 Oct 2025S&P 5006,87550-day average6,604200-day average6,092

3 Nov 2025S&P 5006,85250-day average6,648200-day average6,116

10 Nov 2025S&P 5006,83250-day average6,678200-day average6,134

17 Nov 2025S&P 5006,67250-day average6,708200-day average6,152

24 Nov 2025S&P 5006,70550-day average6,713200-day average6,166

2 Dec 2025S&P 5006,82950-day average6,731200-day average6,184

9 Dec 2025S&P 5006,84150-day average6,752200-day average6,204

16 Dec 2025S&P 5006,80050-day average6,765200-day average6,227

23 Dec 2025S&P 5006,91050-day average6,779200-day average6,254

31 Dec 2025S&P 5006,84650-day average6,803200-day average6,286

8 Jan 2026S&P 5006,92150-day average6,817200-day average6,317

15 Jan 2026S&P 5006,94450-day average6,826200-day average6,349

23 Jan 2026S&P 5006,91650-day average6,838200-day average6,387

30 Jan 2026S&P 5006,93950-day average6,858200-day average6,429

6 Feb 2026S&P 5006,93250-day average6,886200-day average6,470

13 Feb 2026S&P 5006,83650-day average6,895200-day average6,505

23 Feb 2026S&P 5006,83850-day average6,896200-day average6,536

2 Mar 2026S&P 5006,88250-day average6,902200-day average6,565

9 Mar 2026S&P 5006,79650-day average6,900200-day average6,587

16 Mar 2026S&P 5006,69950-day average6,881200-day average6,608

23 Mar 2026S&P 5006,58150-day average6,851200-day average6,625

30 Mar 2026S&P 5006,34450-day average6,802200-day average6,636

7 Apr 2026S&P 5006,61750-day average6,772200-day average6,651

14 Apr 2026S&P 5006,96750-day average6,761200-day average6,671

21 Apr 2026S&P 5007,06450-day average6,778200-day average6,692

28 Apr 2026S&P 5007,13950-day average6,802200-day average6,714

5 May 2026S&P 5007,25950-day average6,836200-day average6,738

12 May 2026S&P 5007,40150-day average6,884200-day average6,764

19 May 2026S&P 5007,35450-day average6,946200-day average6,791

27 May 2026S&P 5007,52050-day average7,022200-day average6,819

3 June 2026S&P 5007,55450-day average7,120200-day average6,848

10 June 2026S&P 5007,26750-day average7,213200-day average6,872

17 June 2026S&P 5007,42050-day average7,301200-day average6,897

25 June 2026S&P 5007,35750-day average7,357200-day average6,921

2 July 2026S&P 5007,48350-day average7,395200-day average6,943

10 July 2026S&P 5007,57550-day average7,433200-day average6,965

17 July 2026S&P 5007,45850-day average7,465200-day average6,987

24 July 2026S&P 5007,41250-day average7,472200-day average7,006

31 July 2026S&P 5007,49050-day average7,472200-day average7,024

7 Aug 2026S&P 5007,75850-day average7,494200-day average7,050

14 Aug 2026S&P 5007,78650-day average7,512200-day average7,075

21 Aug 2026S&P 5007,67450-day average7,541200-day average7,096

28 Aug 2026S&P 5007,71250-day average7,564200-day average7,119

4 Sept 2026S&P 5007,71950-day average7,592200-day average7,142

14 Sept 2026S&P 5007,62050-day average7,610200-day average7,167

21 Sept 2026S&P 5007,76550-day average7,621200-day average7,188

28 Sept 2026S&P 5007,68450-day average7,641200-day average7,209

5 Oct 2026S&P 5007,77450-day average7,665200-day average7,231

Major indexes

Index	Level	From record	Vs 200-day	1 year
S&P 500	7,774	−0.3%	+7.5%	+15.8%
Nasdaq Composite	27,477	0.0%	+11.0%	+20.6%
Dow Jones	51,268	−5.7%	+1.9%	+9.6%
ASX 200	8,686	−6.3%	−1.6%	−3.3%

“From record” is from the highest close in the past two years for the Nasdaq, Dow and ASX 200.

What counts as a crash?

Falls are measured from the last record high, using closing prices. Counts are for the S&P 500 since 1928.

Pullback5–10%: Routine. The S&P 500 has one most years, and most are forgotten within months.
Correction10–20%: 41 since 1928 that stopped short of a bear market, about one every 2.4 years.
Bear market20% or more: 22 since 1928; 11 since 1950, about one every 7 years. Since 1950 the average fall was 35%.
CrashFast and deep: No official line, but it’s the speed that makes it a crash: 20% or more in days or weeks, or 10%+ in a day or two, often with panic selling. 1929, 1987 and 2020 are the classic cases.

Since 1950, a typical bear market took 15 months to hit bottom and 2.1 years from the peak to get back to it. Recoveries vary enormously: six months after COVID, 25 years after 1929.

The worst days

119 Oct 1987−20.5%Black Monday
228 Oct 1929−12.9%The Great Crash
316 Mar 2020−12.0%COVID crash
429 Oct 1929−10.2%The Great Crash
56 Nov 1929−9.9%The Great Crash
63 Sept 1946−9.9%
712 Mar 2020−9.5%COVID crash
85 Oct 1931−9.1%The Great Crash
918 Oct 1937−9.1%Recession of 1937–38
1015 Oct 2008−9.0%Global financial crisis

Crashes through history

The S&P 500 since 1928. Hover a red marker for the story of each crash, or anywhere on the chart for that year. On a log scale, a 50% fall is the same height whenever it happened.

S&P 500 (log scale)
Below its record high
A famous crash, peak to bottom
Bear market line (−20%)

100

500

Below its record high

−20%

−40%

−60%

−80%

1930194019501960197019801990200020102020

1927Year end17.66Furthest below recordat a record

1928Year end24.35Change in the year+37.9%Furthest below record−10.3%

1929Year end21.45Change in the year−11.9%Furthest below record−44.6%

1930Year end15.34Change in the year−28.5%Furthest below record−54.7%

1931Year end8.12Change in the year−47.1%Furthest below record−75.8%

1932Year end6.92Change in the year−14.8%Furthest below record−86.2%

1933Year end9.97Change in the year+44.1%Furthest below record−82.6%

1934Year end9.5Change in the year−4.7%Furthest below record−73.8%

1935Year end13.43Change in the year+41.4%Furthest below record−74.7%

1936Year end17.18Change in the year+27.9%Furthest below record−57.9%

1937Year end10.55Change in the year−38.6%Furthest below record−68.1%

1938Year end13.14Change in the year+24.5%Furthest below record−73.3%

1939Year end12.46Change in the year−5.2%Furthest below record−67.3%

1940Year end10.58Change in the year−15.1%Furthest below record−71.8%

1941Year end8.69Change in the year−17.9%Furthest below record−73.7%

1942Year end9.77Change in the year+12.4%Furthest below record−76.6%

1943Year end11.67Change in the year+19.4%Furthest below record−69.0%

1944Year end13.28Change in the year+13.8%Furthest below record−63.7%

1945Year end17.36Change in the year+30.7%Furthest below record−58.5%

1946Year end15.3Change in the year−11.9%Furthest below record−55.7%

1947Year end15.3Change in the year0.0%Furthest below record−56.8%

1948Year end15.2Change in the year−0.7%Furthest below record−56.6%

1949Year end16.79Change in the year+10.5%Furthest below record−57.5%

1950Year end20.43Change in the year+21.7%Furthest below record−47.7%

1951Year end23.77Change in the year+16.3%Furthest below record−35.1%

1952Year end26.57Change in the year+11.8%Furthest below record−27.5%

1953Year end24.81Change in the year−6.6%Furthest below record−28.7%

1954Year end35.98Change in the year+45.0%Furthest below record−22.2%

1955Year end45.48Change in the year+26.4%Furthest below record−10.6%

1956Year end46.67Change in the year+2.6%Furthest below record−10.6%

1957Year end39.99Change in the year−14.3%Furthest below record−21.5%

1958Year end55.21Change in the year+38.1%Furthest below record−18.8%

1959Year end59.89Change in the year+8.5%Furthest below record−9.2%

1960Year end58.11Change in the year−3.0%Furthest below record−14.0%

1961Year end71.55Change in the year+23.1%Furthest below record−6.2%

1962Year end63.1Change in the year−11.8%Furthest below record−28.0%

1963Year end75.02Change in the year+18.9%Furthest below record−13.7%

1964Year end84.75Change in the year+13.0%Furthest below record−3.5%

1965Year end92.43Change in the year+9.1%Furthest below record−9.6%

1966Year end80.33Change in the year−13.1%Furthest below record−22.2%

1967Year end96.47Change in the year+20.1%Furthest below record−14.5%

1968Year end103.86Change in the year+7.7%Furthest below record−10.1%

1969Year end92.06Change in the year−11.4%Furthest below record−17.7%

1970Year end92.15Change in the year+0.1%Furthest below record−36.1%

1971Year end102.09Change in the year+10.8%Furthest below record−16.8%

1972Year end118.05Change in the year+15.6%Furthest below record−6.2%

1973Year end97.55Change in the year−17.4%Furthest below record−23.4%

1974Year end68.56Change in the year−29.7%Furthest below record−48.2%

1975Year end90.19Change in the year+31.5%Furthest below record−41.7%

1976Year end107.46Change in the year+19.1%Furthest below record−24.4%

1977Year end95.1Change in the year−11.5%Furthest below record−24.6%

1978Year end96.11Change in the year+1.1%Furthest below record−27.7%

1979Year end107.94Change in the year+12.3%Furthest below record−20.1%

1980Year end135.76Change in the year+25.8%Furthest below record−18.3%

1981Year end122.55Change in the year−9.7%Furthest below record−19.7%

1982Year end140.64Change in the year+14.8%Furthest below record−27.1%

1983Year end164.93Change in the year+17.3%Furthest below record−6.9%

1984Year end167.24Change in the year+1.4%Furthest below record−14.4%

1985Year end211.28Change in the year+26.3%Furthest below record−7.7%

1986Year end242.17Change in the year+14.6%Furthest below record−9.4%

1987Year end247.08Change in the year+2.0%Furthest below record−33.5%

1988Year end277.72Change in the year+12.4%Furthest below record−28.0%

1989Year end353.4Change in the year+27.3%Furthest below record−18.2%

1990Year end330.22Change in the year−6.6%Furthest below record−19.9%

1991Year end417.09Change in the year+26.3%Furthest below record−15.6%

1992Year end435.71Change in the year+4.5%Furthest below record−6.2%

1993Year end466.45Change in the year+7.1%Furthest below record−5.0%

1994Year end459.27Change in the year−1.5%Furthest below record−8.9%

1995Year end615.93Change in the year+34.1%Furthest below record−4.7%

1996Year end740.74Change in the year+20.3%Furthest below record−7.6%

1997Year end970.43Change in the year+31.0%Furthest below record−10.8%

1998Year end1,229.23Change in the year+26.7%Furthest below record−19.3%

1999Year end1,469.25Change in the year+19.5%Furthest below record−12.1%

2000Year end1,320.28Change in the year−10.1%Furthest below record−17.2%

2001Year end1,148.08Change in the year−13.0%Furthest below record−36.8%

2002Year end879.82Change in the year−23.4%Furthest below record−49.1%

2003Year end1,111.92Change in the year+26.4%Furthest below record−47.6%

2004Year end1,211.92Change in the year+9.0%Furthest below record−30.4%

2005Year end1,248.29Change in the year+3.0%Furthest below record−25.5%

2006Year end1,418.3Change in the year+13.6%Furthest below record−19.9%

2007Year end1,468.36Change in the year+3.5%Furthest below record−10.1%

2008Year end903.25Change in the year−38.5%Furthest below record−51.9%

2009Year end1,115.1Change in the year+23.5%Furthest below record−56.8%

2010Year end1,257.64Change in the year+12.8%Furthest below record−34.7%

2011Year end1,257.6Change in the year−0.0%Furthest below record−29.8%

2012Year end1,426.19Change in the year+13.4%Furthest below record−18.4%

2013Year end1,848.36Change in the year+29.6%Furthest below record−6.9%

2014Year end2,058.9Change in the year+11.4%Furthest below record−7.4%

2015Year end2,043.94Change in the year−0.7%Furthest below record−12.4%

2016Year end2,238.83Change in the year+9.5%Furthest below record−14.2%

2017Year end2,673.61Change in the year+19.4%Furthest below record−2.8%

2018Year end2,506.85Change in the year−6.2%Furthest below record−19.8%

2019Year end3,230.78Change in the year+28.9%Furthest below record−16.5%

2020Year end3,756.07Change in the year+16.3%Furthest below record−33.9%

2021Year end4,766.18Change in the year+26.9%Furthest below record−5.2%

2022Year end3,839.5Change in the year−19.4%Furthest below record−25.4%

2023Year end4,769.83Change in the year+24.2%Furthest below record−20.6%

2024Year end5,881.63Change in the year+23.3%Furthest below record−8.5%

2025Year end6,845.5Change in the year+16.4%Furthest below record−18.9%

2026Latest7,773.95Change in the year+13.6%Furthest below record−9.1%

1929 The Great CrashSept 1929 – June 1932Fall, peak to bottom−86.2%S&P 50032 → 4.4Time to the bottom2.7 yearsBack to the old high25 years laterA margin-fuelled boom broke on Black Thursday and Black Tuesday in October 1929. Bank failures and the Depression took the market down 86% over nearly three years.

1937 Recession of 1937–38Mar 1937 – Mar 1938Fall, peak to bottom−54.5%S&P 50018.7 → 8.5Time to the bottom13 monthsBack to the old high8.9 years laterThe recovery stalled when the Fed tightened and the government cut spending too soon. The market more than halved in a year.

1940 War yearsOct 1939 – Apr 1942Fall, peak to bottom−43.5%S&P 50013.2 → 7.5Time to the bottom2.5 yearsBack to the old high4.7 years laterThe fall of France in 1940 and Pearl Harbor in 1941 kept stocks sliding until the war turned in 1942.

1962 The Kennedy SlideDec 1961 – June 1962Fall, peak to bottom−28.0%S&P 50073 → 52Time to the bottom6 monthsBack to the old high21 months laterAfter a speculative run, stocks fell sharply in spring 1962, with a 6.7% day on 28 May, the worst since 1929 at the time.

1966 Credit crunch of 1966Feb 1966 – Oct 1966Fall, peak to bottom−22.2%S&P 50094 → 73Time to the bottom8 monthsBack to the old high15 months laterRising rates squeezed lending; stocks fell 22% before the Fed eased.

1969 Nifty Fifty / 1970 bearNov 1968 – May 1970Fall, peak to bottom−36.1%S&P 500108 → 69Time to the bottom18 monthsBack to the old high3.3 years laterInflation, tight money and the Vietnam War ended the go-go years; the market fell more than a third.

1973 Oil crisis and stagflationJan 1973 – Oct 1974Fall, peak to bottom−48.2%S&P 500120 → 62Time to the bottom21 monthsBack to the old high7.5 years laterThe Arab oil embargo, double-digit inflation and Watergate. The S&P 500 nearly halved and didn’t regain its high in real terms for a decade.

1980 Volcker bear marketNov 1980 – Aug 1982Fall, peak to bottom−27.1%S&P 500141 → 102Time to the bottom20 monthsBack to the old high23 months laterPaul Volcker pushed rates near 20% to break inflation, triggering a deep recession before the great 1980s bull market began.

1987 Black MondayAug 1987 – Dec 1987Fall, peak to bottom−33.5%S&P 500337 → 224Time to the bottom3 monthsBack to the old high23 months laterOn 19 October 1987 the S&P 500 fell 20.5% in one day, still the worst day on record, as program trading and “portfolio insurance” fed on themselves.

2000 Dot-com bustMar 2000 – Oct 2002Fall, peak to bottom−49.1%S&P 5001.5k → 777Time to the bottom2.5 yearsBack to the old high7.2 years laterInternet stocks priced for perfection collapsed, then 9/11 and the Enron and WorldCom scandals. The Nasdaq fell 78%; the S&P 500 about half.

2008 Global financial crisisOct 2007 – Mar 2009Fall, peak to bottom−56.8%S&P 5001.6k → 677Time to the bottom17 monthsBack to the old high5.5 years laterSubprime mortgages, Lehman Brothers’ collapse and a frozen banking system. The worst bear market since the 1930s.

2020 COVID crashFeb 2020 – Mar 2020Fall, peak to bottom−33.9%S&P 5003.4k → 2.2kTime to the bottom33 daysBack to the old high6 months laterThe fastest-ever fall into a bear market: 34% in 33 days as the world locked down. Record stimulus made it the fastest recovery too.

2022 Inflation bear marketJan 2022 – Oct 2022Fall, peak to bottom−25.4%S&P 5004.8k → 3.6kTime to the bottom9 monthsBack to the old high2 years laterInflation hit 9% and the Fed raised rates at the fastest pace in 40 years. Bonds and stocks fell together.

2025 Tariff shockFeb 2025 – Apr 2025Fall, peak to bottom−18.9%S&P 5006.1k → 5kTime to the bottom48 daysBack to the old high4 months laterSweeping US tariffs announced on 2 April 2025 wiped 10% off the S&P 500 in two days, stopping just short of a bear market before a pause on the tariffs.

Crash	Fall	To bottom	Back to the high
Tariff shockFeb 2025 – Apr 2025	−18.9%	2 months	4 months
Inflation bear marketJan 2022 – Oct 2022	−25.4%	9 months	2.1 years
COVID crashFeb 2020 – Mar 2020	−33.9%	1 month	6 months
Global financial crisisOct 2007 – Mar 2009	−56.8%	17 months	5.5 years
Dot-com bustMar 2000 – Oct 2002	−49.1%	2.6 years	7.2 years
Black MondayAug 1987 – Dec 1987	−33.5%	3 months	23 months
Volcker bear marketNov 1980 – Aug 1982	−27.1%	20 months	23 months
Oil crisis and stagflationJan 1973 – Oct 1974	−48.2%	21 months	7.5 years
Nifty Fifty / 1970 bearNov 1968 – May 1970	−36.1%	18 months	3.3 years
Credit crunch of 1966Feb 1966 – Oct 1966	−22.2%	8 months	15 months
The Kennedy SlideDec 1961 – June 1962	−28.0%	6 months	21 months
War yearsOct 1939 – Apr 1942	−43.5%	2.5 years	4.8 years
Recession of 1937–38Mar 1937 – Mar 1938	−54.5%	13 months	8.9 years
The Great CrashSept 1929 – June 1932	−86.2%	2.7 years	25 years

Every bear market since 1928 (22)

A fall of 20% or more on closing prices, ending at the low before a 20% rise. A weak rally followed by a lower low (late 2008) counts as the same bear market.

Peak	Bottom	Fall	Recovered
3 Jan 2022	12 Oct 2022	−25.4%	19 Jan 2024
19 Feb 2020	23 Mar 2020	−33.9%	18 Aug 2020
9 Oct 2007	9 Mar 2009	−56.8%	28 Mar 2013
24 Mar 2000	23 July 2002	−47.8%	30 May 2007
25 Aug 1987	4 Dec 1987	−33.5%	26 July 1989
28 Nov 1980	12 Aug 1982	−27.1%	3 Nov 1982
11 Jan 1973	3 Oct 1974	−48.2%	17 July 1980
29 Nov 1968	26 May 1970	−36.1%	6 Mar 1972
9 Feb 1966	7 Oct 1966	−22.2%	4 May 1967
12 Dec 1961	26 June 1962	−28.0%	3 Sept 1963
2 Aug 1956	22 Oct 1957	−21.5%	24 Sept 1958
15 June 1948	13 June 1949	−20.6%	9 Jan 1950
29 May 1946	19 May 1947	−28.5%	9 June 1950
7 Nov 1940	28 Apr 1942	−34.4%	29 Mar 1943
25 Oct 1939	10 June 1940	−31.9%	10 July 1944
10 Oct 1938	11 Apr 1939	−25.1%	14 Feb 1945
10 Mar 1937	31 Mar 1938	−54.5%	29 Jan 1946
6 Feb 1934	14 Mar 1935	−31.8%	10 Sept 1935
18 July 1933	19 Oct 1933	−29.4%	22 Oct 1935
7 Sept 1932	27 Feb 1933	−40.6%	26 May 1933
10 Apr 1930	1 June 1932	−83.0%	9 Dec 1952
16 Sept 1929	13 Nov 1929	−44.6%	22 Sept 1954

How the score works

Each warning sign scores 0 (calm), 1 (watch) or 2 (warning) on the thresholds under its chart. The near-term signs make up 65% of the score and valuation the other 35%, because expensive markets can stay expensive for years (the CAPE passed 30 in 1997, more than two years before the dot-com peak). 0–25 is low, 25–50 moderate, 50–75 elevated and 75+ high.

None of these signs is reliable on its own. The yield curve inverted in 2022 and no recession followed; the VIX was calm in February 2020, weeks before the fastest crash on record. Treat the score as a summary of conditions, not a forecast, and don’t trade on it.

Data: S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow, ASX 200 and VIX from Yahoo Finance; yield curve, junk bond spreads, the Sahm rule and market cap to GDP from FRED (St. Louis Fed); Shiller CAPE from multpl.com. Prices are closing prices, not adjusted for inflation or dividends.