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Tongesy

Updated weekly · 5 Oct 2026

The AI build-out

This year Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle expect to spend about $810–840B on data centres, chips and the power to run them. That's roughly $94 million an hour, day and night. Here's where that money goes, who's getting it, the deals that send it round in circles, and the companies I'm watching. Many of the companies I've invested in are part of it.

Big five, 2026
$810–840B
84% more than 2025's $449B
Every hour
$94M
at the middle of 2026's guidance
Q2 2026
$188B
+79% on a year before
Nvidia data centre, FY2027 Q2
$89B
+117% on a year before

For scale

One year of it, beside some of the biggest projects in history, in today's dollars.

  • The big five's AI build-out, 2026 alone$825B
  • Interstate Highway System (35 years)$634B
  • Oil and gas exploration and production worldwide, one year$570B
  • Apollo program (1960–73)$309B
  • Marshall Plan (1948–52)$137B
  • International Space Station$110B
  • Manhattan Project$28B

The spending race

Capital spending by quarter, in US dollars: mostly servers, chips, data centre buildings and the land and power under them. Hover a quarter for the split.

  • Microsoft
  • Alphabet
  • Amazon
  • Meta
  • Oracle

By year

Calendar years. This year's bar runs from what they've spent so far to what they've told investors they'll spend.

  • 2023$161B
  • 2024$261B
  • 2025$449B
  • 2026$810–840B $366B so far
  • Microsoft$175B 2026

    Microsoft expects about $175B in calendar 2026. That's down from about $190B in April, but only because of an accounting change for leases; it says its plans haven't changed. Capex will grow again in the year to June 2027, starting at over $50B in the September quarter.

    Said 29 July 2026 · source · Capex = capital expenditures including finance leases, as Microsoft reports them.

  • Alphabet$195–205B 2026

    Raised twice this year, from $175–185B in February. Expects capex to increase significantly in 2027.

    Said 22 July 2026 · source · Capex = purchases of property and equipment.

  • Amazon$220B 2026

    About $220B, up from about $200B, partly because memory costs more. It says it won't have enough capacity this year or next.

    Said 30 July 2026 · source · Capex = purchases of property and equipment, before proceeds and incentives (so higher than the cash capex Amazon quotes).

  • Meta$130–145B 2026

    Up from $115–135B in January. No outlook for 2027 yet.

    Said 29 July 2026 · source · Capex = capital expenditures including principal payments on finance leases, as Meta reports them.

  • Oracle$90–95B FY2027 (Jun 2026 – May 2027)

    $90–95B before customers pay back about $20–25B of it; no more than about $70B net.

    Said 10 Sept 2026 · source · Capex = capital expenditures.

What forecasters expect

Spending against sales

Capex as a share of each company's revenue. The dashed line is 25%, about what a power utility spends, the classic capital-hungry business. Each chart has its own scale.

  • Microsoft46%

    from 15% in Q1 2023

  • Alphabet38%

    from 9% in Q1 2023

  • Amazon27%

    from 11% in Q1 2023

  • Meta51%

    from 25% in Q1 2023

  • Oracle148%

    from 21% in Q1 2023

Follow the money

2026's spending, from who's paying to what it buys. The split is a rough guide, from Bernstein's estimate of what a 1 GW site of Nvidia's newest chips costs in 2026 (about $47B); McKinsey's longer-run estimate is 60% chips and computers, 25% power and cooling, and 15% land and buildings.

Microsoft$175BAlphabet$200BAmazon$220BMeta$138BOracle$93B
Microsoft: $175B in 2026Alphabet: $200B in 2026Amazon: $220B in 2026Meta: $138B in 2026Oracle: $93B in 2026AI chips: about $248B (30%)Memory and storage: about $198B (24%)Networking: about $74B (9%)Rest of the rack: about $41B (5%)Buildings, power and cooling: about $264B (32%)$825Bin 2026
AI chips30% · $248BMemory and storage24% · $198BNetworking9% · $74BRest of the rack5% · $41BBuildings, power and cooling32% · $264B
  • AI chips30% · about $248B

    GPUs and custom accelerators. Nvidia makes most of them; Broadcom and Marvell design custom chips for Google, Amazon, Meta and OpenAI; TSMC makes nearly all of them, on machines from ASML.

  • Memory and storage24% · about $198B

    High-bandwidth memory stacked beside each chip, plus the DRAM and flash around it. Its share has grown as memory prices have soared.

  • Networking9% · about $74B

    Switches, cables and optics that join thousands of chips into one machine.

  • Rest of the rack5% · about $41B

    CPUs, boards, in-rack power and cooling, and the assembly.

  • Buildings, power and cooling32% · about $264B

    The shell, land, power plant, switchgear and cooling, and often new generation, which is where the delays are.

    • Vertiv
    • Schneider Electric
    • Eaton
    • GE Vernova
    • Siemens Energy
    • Bloom Energy
    • Goodman Group
    • CleanSpark

Companies I've invested in link to their page.

The biggest single winner

Nvidia's data centre revenue next to what the big five spend.

In Q1 2023 Nvidia's data centre sales were 11% of what the five spent on capex. By Q2 2026 they were 47%. Not all of it is the same money: Nvidia sells to other clouds, labs and governments too, and capex also pays for buildings, power and land.

  • Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle: capex
  • Nvidia: data centre revenue

The money loop

A lot of the money goes round in circles: chipmakers invest in AI labs, the labs sign huge contracts with clouds, and the clouds buy the chips. Each arrow points from who pays to who's paid. Hover a name to see only its deals.

  • Buys compute or cloud
  • Invests
  • Lends or finances
OpenAI → Oracle: $300B. OpenAI agreed to buy about $300B of Oracle cloud compute over roughly five years from 2027, about 4.5 GW (Stargate).OpenAI → Microsoft: $250B. In its for-profit restructuring, OpenAI committed to buy another $250B of Azure; Microsoft kept a 27% stake worth about $135B.OpenAI → Amazon: $138B. OpenAI signed a $38B, seven-year AWS deal in November 2025, then added $100B over eight years in February 2026, including about 2 GW of Amazon's Trainium chips.Nvidia → SB Energy: $105B. Nvidia will back up to $105B of financing for SoftBank's SB Energy to build a 4.25 GW campus in Ohio, leased to OpenAI for 20 years, and invest $1.5B in SB Energy.Anthropic → Amazon: $100B. Anthropic committed to spend more than $100B over ten years on AWS, including Trainium chips, for up to 5 GW of capacity.SoftBank → OpenAI: $60B. SoftBank put $30B into OpenAI's 2025 round, then another $30B in 2026, much of it paid for with a record $40B bridge loan.Amazon → OpenAI: $50B. Amazon agreed to invest $50B in OpenAI: $15B up front and $35B once conditions were met.Anthropic → Fluidstack: $50B. Anthropic said it would put $50B into its own US data centres, built with Fluidstack in Texas and New York.Anthropic → SpaceX: $45B. Anthropic rents xAI's Colossus supercomputers in Memphis for $1.25B a month through May 2029, about $45B in all.Anthropic → Nscale: $45B. Anthropic agreed to pay Nscale up to $44.6B for GPU cloud capacity, if Nscale can finance and deliver it on time.Microsoft → Nscale: $44B. Microsoft signed contracts worth up to $43.8B for Nscale GPU capacity through 2033.Google → Anthropic: $40B. Google agreed to invest up to $40B in Anthropic: $10B at a $380B valuation and up to $30B more on milestones, on top of more than $3B before.Meta → CoreWeave: $35B. Meta agreed to buy $14.2B of CoreWeave AI cloud capacity in September 2025, then about $21B more through 2032.Amazon → Anthropic: $33B. Amazon invested $8B in Anthropic in 2023–24 and agreed in 2026 to put in up to $25B more, $20B of it tied to milestones.Nvidia → OpenAI: $30B. Nvidia bought $30B of OpenAI shares in its record 2026 round, which valued OpenAI at $852B.Anthropic → Microsoft: $30B. Anthropic committed to buy $30B of Azure compute running on Nvidia systems.Meta → Nebius: $30B. Meta signed a roughly $3B Nebius deal in November 2025, then up to $27B more over five years from 2027.Google → SpaceX: $29B. Google will pay SpaceX $920M a month from October 2026 to June 2029 for about 110,000 Nvidia GPUs in xAI's data centres.Blue Owl → Meta: $27B. Blue Owl funds put up most of about $27B to build Meta's Hyperion data centre in Louisiana, which Meta leases back, keeping the debt off its balance sheet.OpenAI → CoreWeave: $22B. OpenAI signed three CoreWeave GPU cloud contracts in 2025 worth up to $22.4B.Microsoft → Nebius: $17B. Microsoft agreed to pay Nebius $17.4B (up to $19.4B) for GPU capacity in New Jersey through 2031.Meta → Google: $10B. Meta signed a six-year Google Cloud contract worth more than $10B, and in 2026 a further multibillion-dollar deal to rent Google's TPU chips.OpenAI → Cerebras: $10B. OpenAI agreed to pay more than $10B for 750 MW of Cerebras inference compute through 2028.Nvidia → Anthropic: $10B. Nvidia committed to invest up to $10B in Anthropic in the three-way deal with Microsoft.Microsoft → IREN: $9.7B. Microsoft signed a five-year, $9.7B contract for Nvidia GB300 capacity at IREN's Childress, Texas campus, 20% paid up front.Nvidia → CoreWeave: $6.3B. Nvidia agreed to buy any CoreWeave capacity its customers don't use, up to $6.3B through 2032, and put $2B more into CoreWeave shares in January 2026.Microsoft → Anthropic: $5B. Microsoft committed to invest up to $5B in Anthropic as Anthropic signed its $30B Azure contract.AMD → Anthropic: $5B. AMD will invest up to $5B in Anthropic, which will buy up to 2 GW of AMD's MI450 chips from 2027.Nvidia → Intel: $5B. Nvidia bought $5B of Intel shares (about 4%), and the two will develop data centre and PC chips together.OpenAI $860BAnthropic $363BMeta $102BSpaceX $74BMicrosoft $356BAmazon $321BOracle $300BGoogle $79BSB Energy $105BNscale $88BCoreWeave $64BFluidstack $50BNebius $47BCerebras $10BIREN $10BNvidia $156BAMD $5BIntel $5BSoftBank $60BBlue Owl $27B

Clockwise from the top right: AI labs, big clouds, GPU clouds and builders, chipmakers, investors and lenders. Deals of $5 billion or more. Headline values, often "up to" and spread over years. Dashed: changed since it was announced. Names in blue are companies I've invested in. Some of the biggest, like OpenAI's 6 GW of AMD chips, 10 GW of Broadcom chips and Meta's 6 GW of AMD chips, have no published value, so they aren't here.

Every deal

  1. $300BOpenAI → OracleBuys compute or cloudOpenAI agreed to buy about $300B of Oracle cloud compute over roughly five years from 2027, about 4.5 GW (Stargate). In March 2026 the two dropped a 600 MW expansion of the flagship Abilene, Texas site after financing talks failed; the main deal stands.Sept 2025 · changed · TechCrunch
  2. $250BOpenAI → MicrosoftBuys compute or cloudIn its for-profit restructuring, OpenAI committed to buy another $250B of Azure; Microsoft kept a 27% stake worth about $135B. Rewritten in April 2026: Azure is no longer exclusive and OpenAI's revenue share to Microsoft is capped, running to 2030.Oct 2025 · changed · Microsoft
  3. $138BOpenAI → AmazonBuys compute or cloudOpenAI signed a $38B, seven-year AWS deal in November 2025, then added $100B over eight years in February 2026, including about 2 GW of Amazon's Trainium chips.Nov 2025 · in progress · Amazon
  4. $105BNvidia → SB EnergyLends or financesNvidia will back up to $105B of financing for SoftBank's SB Energy to build a 4.25 GW campus in Ohio, leased to OpenAI for 20 years, and invest $1.5B in SB Energy.Aug 2026 · CNBC
  5. $100BAnthropic → AmazonBuys compute or cloudAnthropic committed to spend more than $100B over ten years on AWS, including Trainium chips, for up to 5 GW of capacity.Apr 2026 · in progress · Amazon
  6. $60BSoftBank → OpenAIInvestsSoftBank put $30B into OpenAI's 2025 round, then another $30B in 2026, much of it paid for with a record $40B bridge loan. The last tranche was paid on 1 October 2026; SoftBank owns about 13%.Mar 2025 · in progress · SoftBank
  7. $50BAmazon → OpenAIInvestsAmazon agreed to invest $50B in OpenAI: $15B up front and $35B once conditions were met. Fully paid by mid-2026, according to Amazon's filings.Feb 2026 · Amazon
  8. $50BAnthropic → FluidstackBuys compute or cloudAnthropic said it would put $50B into its own US data centres, built with Fluidstack in Texas and New York.Nov 2025 · in progress · Anthropic
  9. $45BAnthropic → SpaceXBuys compute or cloudAnthropic rents xAI's Colossus supercomputers in Memphis for $1.25B a month through May 2029, about $45B in all. Either side can end it on 90 days' notice.May 2026 · in progress · CNBC
  10. $45BAnthropic → NscaleBuys compute or cloudAnthropic agreed to pay Nscale up to $44.6B for GPU cloud capacity, if Nscale can finance and deliver it on time.Aug 2026 · CNBC
  11. $44BMicrosoft → NscaleBuys compute or cloudMicrosoft signed contracts worth up to $43.8B for Nscale GPU capacity through 2033.Oct 2025 · in progress · CNBC
  12. $40BGoogle → AnthropicInvestsGoogle agreed to invest up to $40B in Anthropic: $10B at a $380B valuation and up to $30B more on milestones, on top of more than $3B before.Apr 2026 · CNBC
  13. $35BMeta → CoreWeaveBuys compute or cloudMeta agreed to buy $14.2B of CoreWeave AI cloud capacity in September 2025, then about $21B more through 2032.Sept 2025 · in progress · CNBC
  14. $33BAmazon → AnthropicInvestsAmazon invested $8B in Anthropic in 2023–24 and agreed in 2026 to put in up to $25B more, $20B of it tied to milestones. $13B invested so far.Nov 2024 · in progress · Amazon
  15. $30BNvidia → OpenAIInvestsNvidia bought $30B of OpenAI shares in its record 2026 round, which valued OpenAI at $852B. It replaced a September 2025 letter of intent to invest up to $100B, which was never finalised.Sept 2025 · changed · CNBC
  16. $30BAnthropic → MicrosoftBuys compute or cloudAnthropic committed to buy $30B of Azure compute running on Nvidia systems.Nov 2025 · Anthropic
  17. $30BMeta → NebiusBuys compute or cloudMeta signed a roughly $3B Nebius deal in November 2025, then up to $27B more over five years from 2027.Nov 2025 · in progress · Nebius
  18. $29BGoogle → SpaceXBuys compute or cloudGoogle will pay SpaceX $920M a month from October 2026 to June 2029 for about 110,000 Nvidia GPUs in xAI's data centres.June 2026 · CNBC
  19. $27BBlue Owl → MetaLends or financesBlue Owl funds put up most of about $27B to build Meta's Hyperion data centre in Louisiana, which Meta leases back, keeping the debt off its balance sheet.Oct 2025 · in progress · Meta
  20. $22BOpenAI → CoreWeaveBuys compute or cloudOpenAI signed three CoreWeave GPU cloud contracts in 2025 worth up to $22.4B.Mar 2025 · in progress · CoreWeave
  21. $17BMicrosoft → NebiusBuys compute or cloudMicrosoft agreed to pay Nebius $17.4B (up to $19.4B) for GPU capacity in New Jersey through 2031.Sept 2025 · in progress · Bloomberg
  22. $10BMeta → GoogleBuys compute or cloudMeta signed a six-year Google Cloud contract worth more than $10B, and in 2026 a further multibillion-dollar deal to rent Google's TPU chips.Aug 2025 · in progress · CNBC
  23. $10BOpenAI → CerebrasBuys compute or cloudOpenAI agreed to pay more than $10B for 750 MW of Cerebras inference compute through 2028.Jan 2026 · Bloomberg
  24. $10BNvidia → AnthropicInvestsNvidia committed to invest up to $10B in Anthropic in the three-way deal with Microsoft.Nov 2025 · in progress · Bloomberg
  25. $9.7BMicrosoft → IRENBuys compute or cloudMicrosoft signed a five-year, $9.7B contract for Nvidia GB300 capacity at IREN's Childress, Texas campus, 20% paid up front. The first of four deployments was delivered in August 2026.Nov 2025 · in progress · Bloomberg
  26. $6.3BNvidia → CoreWeaveBuys compute or cloudNvidia agreed to buy any CoreWeave capacity its customers don't use, up to $6.3B through 2032, and put $2B more into CoreWeave shares in January 2026.Sept 2025 · in progress · CNBC
  27. $5BMicrosoft → AnthropicInvestsMicrosoft committed to invest up to $5B in Anthropic as Anthropic signed its $30B Azure contract.Nov 2025 · in progress · Bloomberg
  28. $5BAMD → AnthropicInvestsAMD will invest up to $5B in Anthropic, which will buy up to 2 GW of AMD's MI450 chips from 2027.July 2026 · CNBC
  29. $5BNvidia → IntelInvestsNvidia bought $5B of Intel shares (about 4%), and the two will develop data centre and PC chips together.Sept 2025 · Nvidia
  30. $2BNvidia → SpaceXInvestsNvidia invested in xAI's $20B raise, part of which buys Nvidia GPUs to lease to xAI; xAI became part of SpaceX in February 2026. Reported as up to $2B; later reports put Nvidia's stake higher.Oct 2025 · changed · Bloomberg

Who benefits

The build-out as a stack, from the apps people use down to the power stations. 25 of the companies I've invested in sit somewhere in it (highlighted, linked to their pages); the others are on my watchlist. Share prices over the past year.

Over the past year the market has paid most for memory and storage (a median +412%) and servers (+173%), and least for clouds and data centres (−5%).

  1. Models and apps

    The labs and the software built on them: where the money has to come back from.

    −0%median, 1 year

  2. Clouds and data centres

    The hyperscalers, the newer GPU clouds and the landlords who rent them space.

    −5%median, 1 year

  3. Servers

    The companies that assemble the racks.

    +173%median, 1 year

  4. Networking and optics

    Switches, cables and lasers that tie thousands of chips into one computer.

    +88%median, 1 year

  5. Chips

    GPUs, custom AI accelerators and the CPUs beside them.

    +120%median, 1 year

  6. Memory and storage

    High-bandwidth memory stacked beside every AI chip, and the drives that feed it.

    +412%median, 1 year

  7. Chipmaking

    The foundries and the machines that make the chips.

    +100%median, 1 year

  8. Cooling and electrical

    Liquid cooling, switchgear and backup power inside the building.

    +15%median, 1 year

  9. Power and land

    Electricity, grid gear, turbines and sites to build on. The slowest thing to add.

    +5%median, 1 year

Worth watching

Companies I don't own that the build-out runs through, many of them where it's short of something: power, memory, cooling, optics. Why each matters now, and what could go wrong. Not advice.

  • Bloom Energy

    NYSE:BE · Power and land

    +230% 1Y

    First $1B quarter (up 166%) in July 2026, and higher 2026 guidance: its fuel cells let data centres generate power on site instead of waiting for the grid.

    Risk: Oracle is a big customer and invoked force majeure on its New Mexico campus in September; the shares are up about 230% in a year.

    Bloom Energy

  • GE Vernova

    NYSE:GEV · Power and land

    +65% 1Y

    Its gas turbine backlog and reservations grew from 100 GW to 116 GW in one quarter, with orders up 88%, and it expects at least 125 GW by the end of 2026.

    Risk: Reservations aren't firm orders, and a pause in data centre building would leave the factories it's expanding underused.

    Turbomachinery

  • Siemens Energy

    XETR:ENR · Power and land

    +37% 1Y

    Record €162B backlog in the June quarter; it booked 73 gas turbines, about half for data centres and the Middle East.

    Risk: Its wind business has a history of losses, and it reports in euros.

    Turbomachinery

  • Constellation Energy

    NASDAQ:CEG · Power and land

    −26% 1Y

    Signed a 20-year deal with Amazon on 30 September 2026 to add 190 MW of new nuclear capacity at Calvert Cliffs, after raising its 2026 earnings guidance in August.

    Risk: Regulators and consumer groups are pushing back on big tech nuclear deals, and weaker Texas power prices could hit its newer gas plants.

    Newsquawk

  • Vistra

    NYSE:VST · Power and land

    −27% 1Y

    June-quarter earnings rose 30%, and its 1.2 GW nuclear supply deal with Amazon at Comanche Peak starts in 2027.

    Risk: Texas has paused new data centre grid requests while it audits a 474 GW queue, and Vistra has trimmed its Texas demand forecast.

    Utility Dive

  • Vertiv

    NYSE:VRT · Cooling and electrical

    +56% 1Y

    June-quarter sales up 24% to $3.27B, and 2026 guidance raised to $13.8–14.2B on demand for liquid cooling and power gear for AI.

    Risk: An expensive share price and a few big buyers mean any pause in GPU deployments shows up in orders fast.

    SEC filing

  • Eaton

    NYSE:ETN · Cooling and electrical

    +15% 1Y

    Record June quarter: sales up 21% and its electrical backlog more than doubled in a year.

    Risk: The share price already reflects the data centre cycle, and switchgear lead times could shorten as rivals add capacity.

    Pulse 2.0

  • Schneider Electric

    EURONEXT:SU · Cooling and electrical

    +11% 1Y

    Record first-half revenue of €21.2B, with June-quarter growth of 17% (23% in North America) and data centre demand 'at a very high level'.

    Risk: Data centres are only part of a broad industrial business, so a European slowdown can offset the AI boost.

    tED magazine

  • Lam Research

    NASDAQ:LRCX · Chipmaking

    +133% 1Y

    Record $6.72B quarter in July 2026, guiding to $8.1B, and it raised its view of 2026 chip equipment spending to the low $150Bs.

    Risk: Nearly half its sales are to memory makers, and China export rules could tighten.

    TIKR

  • Advantest

    TSE:6857 · Chipmaking

    +126% 1Y

    June-quarter sales up 39% and operating income up 53%, from testers for AI chips and HBM memory.

    Risk: Tied to a few AI chip programmes, so a slowdown in GPU and HBM volumes hits quickly.

    Advantest

  • Tokyo Electron

    TSE:8035 · Chipmaking

    +118% 1Y

    June-quarter sales up 33% and operating income up 46%, with a record first-half forecast on AI server, logic and memory demand.

    Risk: Heavy exposure to China and memory makers' spending, plus swings in the yen.

    Quartr

  • KLA

    NASDAQ:KLAC · Chipmaking

    +83% 1Y

    Record $3.66B quarter; its inspection tools for advanced chip packaging are up more than 70%, heading for about $1.1B this year.

    Risk: China exposure, and a downturn in chip equipment spending would squeeze its premium valuation.

    Finviz

  • SK hynix

    KRX:000660 · Memory and storage

    +367% 1Y

    Record June quarter: revenue up 257% and operating profit up 557%, as it began shipping HBM4 memory in volume.

    Risk: Memory is the most cyclical layer: prices can fall fast once new factories come on.

    Pulse 2.0

  • Samsung Electronics

    KRX:005930 · Memory and storage

    +210% 1Y

    June-quarter operating profit of about $58.5B, briefly more than Nvidia's, and its HBM4 is now shipping for Nvidia's Vera Rubin.

    Risk: Almost all its profit now comes from memory prices, so a price fall would hit hard.

    SamMobile

  • Lumentum

    NASDAQ:LITE · Networking and optics

    +580% 1Y

    Revenue more than doubled to $1.01B in its June quarter, and it guided higher again on demand for the lasers in AI optical links.

    Risk: Optics has always been cyclical and prone to inventory gluts, and converting its notes to shares diluted shareholders.

    SEC filing

  • Marvell Technology

    NASDAQ:MRVL · Networking and optics

    +206% 1Y

    Data centre revenue up 46% to $2.17B in its August quarter; it now expects about $18B of revenue in its 2028 fiscal year as custom AI chips ramp.

    Risk: Custom chip revenue rests on a few hyperscaler programmes that can be lost to Broadcom or in-house teams.

    Futurum

  • Corning

    NYSE:GLW · Networking and optics

    +88% 1Y

    Optical sales up 32% in the June quarter, a multibillion-dollar fibre deal with Amazon, and a pact with Nvidia to make ten times more optical connectors in the US.

    Risk: It missed guidance in July, and display glass still dilutes the AI story.

    Business Wire

  • Credo Technology

    NASDAQ:CRDO · Networking and optics

    +44% 1Y

    Revenue up 115% to $479M in its July quarter, with growth guidance for the year raised to 85%, on the copper cables that link AI racks.

    Risk: A handful of customers, and short copper links could be replaced by optics.

    SEC filing

  • Arista Networks

    NYSE:ANET · Networking and optics

    +38% 1Y

    First $3B quarter (up 38%) in August 2026, guiding to about $3.3B next, and new 1.6 Tbps switches for AI clusters.

    Risk: Microsoft and Meta are a big share of sales, and Nvidia's own networking competes for AI clusters.

    SEC filing

  • Dell Technologies

    NYSE:DELL · Servers

    +284% 1Y

    Record $60.9B of AI server orders and a $95B AI backlog; it now expects $192B of revenue this financial year, $74B of it AI servers.

    Risk: AI servers have thin margins, dearer memory squeezes them, and orders depend on a few customers.

    Constellation Research

  • Celestica

    NYSE:CLS · Servers

    +63% 1Y

    June-quarter revenue up 62%, 2026 guidance raised to $20.5B, and it expects growth to speed up in 2027.

    Risk: A contract manufacturer that depends on a few hyperscalers' custom AI and networking programmes.

    SEC filing

  • Equinix

    NASDAQ:EQIX · Clouds and data centres

    +32% 1Y

    June-quarter revenue up 16%, a record number of new connections, and a higher growth outlook to 2029 with Nvidia and Cisco partnerships.

    Risk: Grows more slowly than pure AI landlords, and rising capex and interest rates weigh on returns.

    SEC filing

  • Applied Digital

    NASDAQ:APLD · Clouds and data centres

    −11% 1Y

    Three 15-year hyperscaler leases worth about $20B, taking it to 1.4 GW contracted.

    Risk: Only 175 MW is running today; the rest depends on expensive debt and getting power to its North Dakota and Louisiana sites on time.

    SEC filing

  • Goodman Group

    ASX:GMG · Clouds and data centres

    −22% 1Y

    Operating profit up 15.7% to A$2.67B for the year to June, with data centres now 78% of its A$19.7B of work in progress.

    Risk: Shares are down about 20% in a year on doubts its powered land will turn into signed hyperscale tenants.

    Motley Fool

  • CoreWeave

    NASDAQ:CRWV · Clouds and data centres

    −35% 1Y

    June-quarter revenue up 112% to $2.58B, a backlog of about $104B, and more than $25B of new commitments since.

    Risk: Heavily indebted, and most of its business is with a few customers like Microsoft and OpenAI.

    CoreWeave

  • NEXTDC

    ASX:NXT · Clouds and data centres

    −37% 1Y

    Signed a record 250 MW commitment at its S4 Sydney campus, lifting contracted capacity 60% to 667 MW, with A$8.4B of funding in place.

    Risk: Building it has meant new shares and debt, and the revenue only starts once power and fit-out are delivered.

    NEXTDC

  • Oracle

    NYSE:ORCL · Clouds and data centres

    −51% 1Y

    Cloud infrastructure revenue up 121% to $7.4B, and contracted backlog of $664B after more than $30B of new AI contracts in a quarter.

    Risk: It's paying with debt and new shares: $28.5B of capex in a quarter, $20B of stock sold, record credit default swap prices, and force majeure on its New Mexico campus.

    SEC filing

  • Palantir

    NASDAQ:PLTR · Models and apps

    +6% 1Y

    June-quarter revenue up 93% and US commercial revenue up 149%: a sign businesses are paying for AI software, not just trying it.

    Risk: Its valuation is extreme against its revenue, and government contracts make results lumpy.

    SEC filing

How fast it's growing

The compute that trains the biggest models, the tokens they get through, and the electricity behind them, year by year. The big number is the growth rate the points so far fit best (the dashed grey line). Compute and tokens are on a log scale, where every gridline is ten times the one below, so steady growth is a straight line. Hollow points are projections. Hover a point for its source.

Compute to train the biggest models

4× a yeardoubling every 6 months

The biggest language models each year, by the calculations it took to train them; most are Epoch AI’s estimates. From 3.1 × 10²³ in May 2020 to 1 × 10²⁷ FLOP in Sept 2026. Epoch AI: 5× a year since 2020

AI chips shipped (Nvidia)

3× a yeardoubling every 8 months

The computing power of every Nvidia AI chip shipped since 2022, in H100s’ worth. Nothing is counted as retired. From 1.4 million in Dec 2023 to 21 million H100-equivalents in June 2026. Epoch AI: all AI chips, 3.4× a year

Tokens Google processes a month

19× a yeardoubling every 3 months

Across all its products: Search, Gemini, Workspace, the cloud. A token is about three-quarters of a word. From 9.7 trillion in May 2024 to 3.2 quadrillion tokens in May 2026. Google: more than 300 times in two years

Tokens through Google’s AI API a minute

5.3× a yeardoubling every 5 months

Customers calling Google’s models directly: businesses and developers building on them, paying by the token. From 7 billion in Oct 2025 to 22 billion tokens a minute in July 2026.

US data centre electricity

+14% a yeardoubling every 5.3 years

A year, all data centres, not just AI. The hollow points are LBNL’s reference case, with its range of scenarios. From 60 in 2014 to 192 TWh in 2024. LBNL: +21% a year, 2026 to 2030 (projected)

World data centre electricity

+17% a yeardoubling every 4.4 years

A year, all data centres. Only two years are measured on the same basis so far, so the fitted rate is rough. From 415 in 2024 to 485 TWh in 2025. IEA: about 12% a year since 2017

The power problem

Electricity used by data centres, in terawatt-hours a year. Hatched bars are projections; the whiskers show the range between scenarios. Chips can be bought in months; power stations and grid connections take years.

The world

0
200
400
600
800
1,000
4152024IEA2024 · actual415 TWhAbout 1.5% of the world's electricity.IEA, Energy and AI (2025)
4852025IEA2025 · actual485 TWhUp 17% in a year; AI-focused sites up 50%.IEA, Key questions on energy and AI (2026)
9452030IEA2030 · projection945 TWhBase case, just under 3% of the world's electricity.IEA, Energy and AI (2025)

United States

0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1762023LBNL2023 · actual176 TWh4.4% of US electricity.LBNL for the US DOE (2024)
325–5802028LBNL2028 · projection325–580 TWh6.7–12% of US electricity. The bar is the middle of the range.LBNL for the US DOE (2024)
521–8432030LBNL2030 · projection521–843 TWhReference case, 11.8% of US electricity (9.5–15.3%).LBNL, 2025 update (2026)

Will it pay off?

The strongest facts on each side, refreshed every week.

The case it pays off

  • OpenAI's annualised revenue neared $70B, up more than 70% since July, according to reports; enterprise revenue has more than doubled. InsiderFinance, 29 Sept
  • Anthropic's annualised revenue topped $65B at the end of July, more than seven times its level at the end of 2025. Bloomberg, 18 Aug
  • Microsoft's Azure passed $100B in annual revenue and grew 43% in the June quarter; Microsoft 365 Copilot passed 30 million paid seats. SEC filing, 29 July
  • Oracle's contracted backlog reached $664B, up $209B in a year. SEC filing, 10 Sept
  • Palantir's US commercial revenue grew 149% in the June quarter: businesses are paying for AI software, not just piloting it. SEC filing, 3 Aug
  • Nvidia sold $89B of data centre products in one quarter, up 117%, and expects $108B of total revenue next quarter. Nvidia, 26 Aug

The case it doesn’t

  • Epoch AI estimates the big spenders' capex is overtaking their operating cash flow around now, growing about 70% a year against 23% for cash flow; Oracle crossed over already. Epoch AI
  • Oracle invoked force majeure on its 2.45 GW, $165B Project Jupiter campus over power delays; its 2055 bonds traded around 77 cents on the dollar. BNN Bloomberg, 24 Sept
  • Anthropic's reported IPO prospectus shows about $518B of compute commitments over the next decade, mostly non-cancellable, against 2025 revenue of about $4.6B. InvestmentNews, 29 Sept
  • The five issued $121B of US bonds in 2025, against an average of $28B a year in 2020–24. Yahoo Finance, 31 Dec
  • Bernstein estimates a 1 GW site of Nvidia's newest chips loses about $7.9B of value a year as the chips age, six times its power bill, so returns depend on how long the chips stay useful. Anue (Bernstein), 13 June
  • Morgan Stanley sees $2.9T of data centre spending to 2028, of which the hyperscalers' cash flow covers only about $1.4T; the rest has to be borrowed, about $800B of it from private credit. Morgan Stanley, 15 July

Lately

The biggest developments, newest first.

  1. 30 Sept 2026

    Micron posted a record $54.2B quarter and expects $61.5B next, as AI demand keeps memory sold out. Micron

  2. 29 Sept 2026

    OpenAI's revenue run-rate neared $70B, and it's in early talks to raise at least $30B at a valuation of about $1.4 trillion. InsiderFinance, citing Bloomberg

  3. 24 Sept 2026

    Oracle invoked force majeure on its 2.45 GW Project Jupiter campus in New Mexico because it couldn't get power in time; its shares fell about 4%. BNN Bloomberg

  4. 18 Sept 2026

    UK GPU cloud Nscale filed to list in New York, showing a $1.02B half-year loss on $141M of revenue. SEC filing

  5. 11 Sept 2026

    SpaceX signed a fourth AI compute customer worth about $13.3B a year from December, taking its compute contracts to about $41B a year. The News

  6. 10 Sept 2026

    Microsoft plans to more than triple its data centre capacity, from about 12 GW to over 38 GW by 2032, Bloomberg reported. Bloomberg

  7. 10 Sept 2026

    Oracle's contracted backlog reached $664B and cloud infrastructure revenue rose 121%, but it spent $28.5B on capex in a quarter and sold $20B of shares to pay for it. Oracle

  8. 4 Sept 2026

    Broadcom's AI chip revenue jumped 221% to $16.7B, and it expects $21.7B next quarter from custom accelerators. Broadcom

  9. 26 Aug 2026

    Nvidia had a record $96.2B quarter, $89B of it from data centres, and expects $108B next as Vera Rubin chips ramp up. Nvidia

  10. 26 Aug 2026

    Anthropic agreed to rent about $45B of Nvidia capacity from Nscale over six years, starting late 2027, according to sources. CNBC

  11. 18 Aug 2026

    Anthropic's annualised revenue passed $65B at the end of July, up from about $9B at the end of 2025. Bloomberg

  12. 17 Aug 2026

    Nvidia agreed to back up to $105B of financing for a 4.25 GW campus in Ohio that SoftBank's SB Energy will lease to OpenAI. CNBC

  13. 11 Aug 2026

    CoreWeave more than doubled its June-quarter revenue to $2.58B, with a backlog of about $104B. CoreWeave

Sources and method

Capex and revenue are from each company's results, by calendar quarter (Microsoft's and Oracle's fiscal quarters are put in the calendar quarter they mostly cover). They're not quite like for like: each company reports capex its own way, as noted under the chart. The split of where the money goes is a rough estimate from the analysts below, not reported figures. Every week an AI model (anthropic/claude-opus-5.5) with web search checks for new results, guidance, deals and news, and refreshes the watchlist and the case each way; anything without a source that loads is thrown out. It can still be wrong, so check the links. Share prices from Yahoo Finance, updated 5 Oct 2026. Nothing here is financial advice.

All 44 sources

My investments Investment analytics Predictions

Noosa Heads, Australia

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