Called 28 Sept 2026 · settles 31 Dec 2026 (83 days to go)
OpenSpaceX ends 2026 with a share price over $250
- When I called it
- $145.47
- Now (8 Oct 2026)
- $160.57
- Needs
- ≥ $250
It needs +55.7% from here.
Right if the last close on or before 31 Dec 2026 is at least $250.
Jev's odds
22%chance it comes true
Up 4 points since the first reading on 29 Sept 2026.
Every reading
| Date | Odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | 22% | 28 |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 22% | 28 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 13% | 26 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 14% | 26 |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 13% | 26 |
| 4 Oct 2026 | 17% | 28 |
| 3 Oct 2026 | 16% | 28 |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 16% | 28 |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 22% | 27 |
| 30 Sept 2026 | 20% | 25 |
| 29 Sept 2026 | 18% | 8 |
How it's read
- 129 Sept 2026 · First reading. Adds public news: once a week an AI with web search gathers dated developments on the call, Jev keeps the ones that bear on it, and reads them with the evidence on this site. (jev-1.13.0)
- 230 Sept 2026 · New method. Adds a research brief from Claude Opus 5.5 with web search (weekly, twice weekly in the last 100 days): key numbers and financials, outside odds from prediction markets and analysts, dates coming up, the base rate, and the strongest case each way. Jev reads it with the news and the evidence on this site. (jev-1.13.0)
The odds move when the evidence does, and also when what Jev is given or Jev itself changes, so each change is marked. A model's reading, not a forecast; it can be wrong.
Research brief
From outside this site, by Claude Opus 5.5 with web search on 8 Oct 2026. Jev reads it every day.
The case for
Momentum is strong. Starship reached orbit with Starlink V3 satellites, the TSMC talks were confirmed, and the stock gained more than 15% in five days. Morgan Stanley's $300 target and Needham's $250 are at or above the threshold, and the stock has traded as high as $225.64 before.
The case against
At about $168, the stock needs roughly a 49% gain, and the consensus targets ($227 to $235) sit below $250 even on a 12-month view. About 2.7B shares unlock before year-end, the company trades at more than 100 times sales, quarterly capex is heavy, and it is looking to borrow $40B. All of that could cap the price.
Outside odds
- Wall Street consensus (TipRanks): Moderate Buy (27 Buy, 4 Hold, 2 Sell). The average 12-month target is $235.10, below $250.TipRanks, 2 Oct 2026
- Morgan Stanley (Adam Jonas): Buy rating, $300 price target, reiterated Oct 5TipRanks, 5 Oct 2026
- Analyst targets (Goldman Sachs, Needham, Susquehanna): Goldman Sachs: Buy, target $230 (raised from $220). Needham: Buy, $250. Susquehanna: Hold, $173. The Investing.com average is $227.54.Investing.com, 7 Oct 2026
- Trading Economics model: Forecasts $155.51 by end of Q4 and $145.60 in one yearTrading Economics, 1 Oct 2026
Key numbers
- Share price (last trade, Oct 7)
- $168.00, after trading between $165.65 and $171.31 that day. It needs to rise about 49% to pass $250.
- Robinhood · 7 Oct 2026
- Trading range since IPO
- Low $104.83, high $225.64. It has never closed above $250.
- Robinhood · 7 Oct 2026
Coming up
- Lockup expiry: up to 328.4M shares become eligible for sale
- Lockup expiry: another 328.4M shares
- Expected Q3 earnings, followed by an unlock of up to about 1.3B shares
- End of the 180-day lockup: about 800M more shares unlocked
Base rate. A rise of about 49% in under three months is rare for a mega-cap stock. SPCX is unusually volatile, though: it went from about $225 to below $105 and back to about $170 within four months, so swings of that size have already happened in this stock.
Written by an AI model from what it found on the web; every figure links to its source. It can be wrong or out of date. Not financial advice.
In the news
Public developments that bear on this call, found with the research brief and kept by Jev, which also says which way each points.
6 Oct 2026 · Finbold Points against it
SPCX rose 15.55% in five days to $171.09, finally trading above its first-day range of $150 to $160.95. Source
5 Oct 2026 · CNN Markets (TipRanks headlines) Points toward it
SPCX jumped more than 5% after Elon Musk confirmed talks with TSMC about a possible partnership. Source
2 Oct 2026 · TipRanks Points toward it
The shares surged after the NASA Crew-13 launch and a Google AI satellite mission, a few days after Starship reached orbit for the first time and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites. Source
29 Sept 2026 · Kalkine / Investing.com Points toward it
TD Cowen started covering SpaceX at Buy with a $200 target, when the stock was at $145.47. CLSA also started coverage, with a $250 target. Source
28 Sept 2026 · AD-HOC-News Points against it
SpaceX (SPCX) shares closed at $145.47 on Nasdaq, down 2.16% from the prior session and well below the $250 level. Source
24 Sept 2026 · TipRanks Points against it
At the September 24 lockup expiry, 328.4 million shares became eligible for sale; the stock fell 4.1% the day before and only 0.2% on the day. Source
24 Sept 2026 · KuCoin News / Yahoo Finance Points against it
About 328.4 million shares were freed for trading under SpaceX's staggered IPO lockup, worth roughly $48.7B at the Sept 23 close. More releases are expected in October, with further tranches through June 2027. Source
24 Sept 2026 · The Motley Fool Points against it
SpaceX shares closed at $151.85 on September 21, and would need to rise about 25% just to reach $190 by the end of 2026. Source
23 Sept 2026 · BeInCrypto Points against it
SpaceX stock fell more than 4% the day before about 328 million locked-up shares became free to trade on September 24. The previous unlock, on September 9, saw a 3.9% drop. Source
22 Sept 2026 · MarketBeat Points against it
Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX's president and COO, sold 342,170 shares at an average of $153.57, about $52.5 million. Source
18 Sept 2026 · Perplexity Finance / CNBC Points toward it
NASA added a $946M contract change for three more crewed ISS flights. Separately, CFO Bret Johnsen said SpaceX is more confident of a $100B annualized revenue run rate by year-end, helped by an AI compute hosting deal worth about $1.11B a month starting in December. Source
4 Aug 2026 · Investing.com Points against it
Q2 revenue rose 92% year over year to $7.8B against a $6.81B estimate, and adjusted EBITDA was $3.5B, but the company still posted a $541M net loss. Source
Timeline
28 Sept 2026 · The call
SpaceX ends 2026 with a share price over $250
31 Dec 2026 · Settles
Scored automatically from the closing price.
Posts are tied to this call automatically by an AI model (Jev) and can be wrong. Not financial advice.
