Called 28 Sept 2026 · settles 31 Dec 2026 (83 days to go)
OpenTesla ends 2026 with a share price over $500
- When I called it
- $357.45
- Now (8 Oct 2026)
- $375.00
- Needs
- ≥ $500
It needs +33.3% from here.
Right if the last close on or before 31 Dec 2026 is at least $500.
Jev's odds
26%chance it comes true
Down 6 points since the first reading on 29 Sept 2026.
Every reading
| Date | Odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | 26% | 26 |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 27% | 26 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 26% | 25 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 24% | 25 |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 24% | 25 |
| 4 Oct 2026 | 20% | 30 |
| 3 Oct 2026 | 20% | 30 |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 20% | 29 |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 18% | 27 |
| 30 Sept 2026 | 17% | 25 |
| 29 Sept 2026 | 32% | 9 |
How it's read
- 129 Sept 2026 · First reading. Adds public news: once a week an AI with web search gathers dated developments on the call, Jev keeps the ones that bear on it, and reads them with the evidence on this site. (jev-1.13.0)
- 230 Sept 2026 · New method. Adds a research brief from Claude Opus 5.5 with web search (weekly, twice weekly in the last 100 days): key numbers and financials, outside odds from prediction markets and analysts, dates coming up, the base rate, and the strongest case each way. Jev reads it with the news and the evidence on this site. (jev-1.13.0)
The odds move when the evidence does, and also when what Jev is given or Jev itself changes, so each change is marked. A model's reading, not a forecast; it can be wrong.
Research brief
From outside this site, by Claude Opus 5.5 with web search on 8 Oct 2026. Jev reads it every day.
The case for
Tesla is a high-beta stock (beta about 1.9). It is already up about 7% in a week after a Q3 delivery beat of roughly 25,000 vehicles, and it reached $498.83 less than a year ago. Possible catalysts include the Q3 results on October 21, the Cybercab expanding in Austin and debuting in Europe, and bulls like Wedbush with a $600 target.
The case against
The stock is down for 2026, and the average analyst target (about $396–412) sits close to the current price, far below $500. Q2 brought a 33–40% EPS miss, negative free cash flow and capex guidance above $25 billion. Musk has signalled free cash flow stays negative through year-end and that material Cybercab revenue is unlikely before 2027, while NHTSA is examining the Cybercab's self-certification. At a P/E of about 350, the stock is already priced for a lot of future growth.
Outside odds
- Wall Street consensus (MarketBeat): Hold rating, $412.19 average target: 1 strong buy, 24 buy, 17 hold, 5 sellMarketBeat, 7 Oct 2026
- Analysts tracked by Google Finance (26): Average 12-month target $396.39; highest $505, lowest $24.86Google Finance, 7 Oct 2026
- Trading Economics model: Expects $362.55 at the end of Q4 2026Trading Economics, 7 Oct 2026
Key numbers
Coming up
- Paris Motor Show opens (runs to Oct 18) with the Cybercab's European debut, Optimus Gen 2 and FSD test drives
- Q3 2026 results after the market close: margins, free cash flow and capex guidance
- Last trading day of 2026, when the prediction settles
Base rate. To settle above $500, TSLA has to rise about 33% from roughly $377 in under 12 weeks, which would also be a new all-time high (the record is about $498.83, set in December 2025). Tesla has made quarterly moves this big before, such as its post-election rally in Q4 2024, but only in a minority of quarters.
Written by an AI model from what it found on the web; every figure links to its source. It can be wrong or out of date. Not financial advice.
In the news
Public developments that bear on this call, found with the research brief and kept by Jev, which also says which way each points.
6 Oct 2026 · GuruFocus Points toward it
Tesla said it will show its Cybercab robotaxi in Europe for the first time at the Paris Motor Show, October 12–18; the shares rose 0.6% that day. Source
2 Oct 2026 · Electrek Points against it
Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in Q3 2026. That beat the company-compiled consensus of 461,974 and was up 1.3% from Q2, but down 2.1% from the record Q3 2025. Source
2 Oct 2026 · CNBC Points toward it
The shares rose about 5% after the delivery beat and closed at $370.59. Morgan Stanley (Hold) said Tesla may be 'exiting the EV winter', and RBC (Outperform) called the figure 'impressive'. Source
2 Oct 2026 · Not a Tesla App Points against it
Tesla is due to report Q3 2026 deliveries today. The company-compiled consensus of 24 sell-side analysts is 461,974 vehicles, which would be about 7% below the record 497,099 in Q3 2025. Source
1 Oct 2026 · Gotrade Points against it
Tesla shares fell about 8% over the five sessions to October 1, leaving the stock down about 22% for the year to date. Source
28 Sept 2026 · Benzinga / MarketBeat Points against it
JPMorgan kept its Neutral rating and cut its price target to $415 from $445. Around the same time, BNP Paribas Exane lowered its target to $268 (Underperform). Source
28 Sept 2026 · KuCoin News / FX Leaders Points against it
Tesla closed down 3.94% at $357.45 after it pushed the next-generation Roadster reveal from October 1 to October 15, and JPMorgan cut its price target to $415 with a neutral rating. Source
28 Sept 2026 · ScanX / Benzinga Points against it
Tesla shares fell 3.30% to $359.80 after JPMorgan cut its price target to $415 from $445 and kept a Neutral rating. Investors were also cautious ahead of the Q3 delivery report. Source
28 Sept 2026 · TradingKey Points against it
JPMorgan lowered its Q3 delivery estimate to 482,000 from 516,000, citing August registrations down about 13% in China and 4% in the US, on a day when the Nasdaq fell more than 1%. Source
28 Sept 2026 · Electrek Points against it
Wall Street's Q3 2026 delivery estimates range from 421,758 to 482,000, and nearly all of them are below the 497,099 record set in Q3 2025. Source
28 Sept 2026 · ad-hoc-news.de Points against it
Tesla shares closed at $357.45, down 3.94% from the previous close. Source
25 Sept 2026 · TipRanks via CNN Points against it
The European Union delayed its vote on approving Tesla's Full Self-Driving software to at least December. Source
Timeline
28 Sept 2026 · The call
Tesla ends 2026 with a share price over $500
31 Dec 2026 · Settles
Scored automatically from the closing price.
Posts are tied to this call automatically by an AI model (Jev) and can be wrong. Not financial advice.
