Tesla ends 2026 with a share price over $500

Jev's odds

28%chance it comes true

Down 4 points since the first reading on 29 Sep 2026.

How it's read

1. 129 Sep 2026 · First reading. Adds public news: once a week an AI with web search gathers dated developments on the call, Jev keeps the ones that bear on it, and reads them with the evidence on this site. (jev-1.13.0)
2. 230 Sep 2026 · New method. Adds a research brief from Claude Opus 5.5 with web search (weekly, twice weekly in the last 100 days): key numbers and financials, outside odds from prediction markets and analysts, dates coming up, the base rate, and the strongest case each way. Jev reads it with the news and the evidence on this site. (jev-1.13.0)

The odds move when the evidence does, and also when what Jev is given or Jev itself changes, so each change is marked. A model's reading, not a forecast; it can be wrong.

Research brief

From outside this site, by Claude Opus 5.5 with web search on 20 Oct 2026. Jev reads it every day.

Outside odds

• Wedbush (Dan Ives): Holds the Street-high $600 target with an Outperform rating and expects Tesla to reach a $2 trillion market cap in 2026FXOpen, 9 Jul 2026
• Cantor Fitzgerald: Reiterated its Buy rating with a $485 price target, which is below $500Investing.com, 20 Oct 2026
• Morgan Stanley / JPMorgan / Goldman Sachs: Morgan Stanley Equalweight $415; JPMorgan Hold $415; Jefferies Hold $400; Goldman Sachs $375 Neutral, citing capex above $25bn and negative free cash flow through 2026Beinsure / FXOpen, 9 Oct 2026
• Barclays (Dan Levy): Sees a possible merger announcement ahead of the 2026 annual meeting, most likely structured as SpaceX acquiring Tesla through an exchange of shares; this remains an analyst's scenario, with no confirmed merger agreementINDmoney, 14 Oct 2026

Key numbers

TSLA share price (intraday)

$369.04, +14.32 (+4.04%), as of 3:40 PM Eastern; this means it needs about 36% more to clear $500

MarketBeat · 20 Oct 2026

Analyst consensus price target

44 analysts polled by S&P Global: consensus rating "Buy", average price target $397.83; median $412.5, high $600

StockAnalysis · 16 Oct 2026

Q3 2026 consensus estimates

EPS of $0.4481 on revenue of $27.92 billion

MarketBeat · 11 Oct 2026

Deliveries year to date

1,324,681 vehicles through three quarters, up 8.8% from 1,217,902 at the same point in 2025

Electrek · 2 Oct 2026

Coming up

• 21 Oct 2026Q3 2026 results and webcast, 4:30 p.m. Central Time / 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time
• 3 Dec 2026Tesla 2026 annual shareholder meeting at Giga Texas (re-election of Musk, Denholm and Straubel, say-on-pay, auditor ratification); Barclays flagged the period before it as a possible window for a Spac
• 31 Dec 2026Last trading day of 2026; the closing price settles the prediction
• 2 Jan 2027Q4 2026 deliveries report, expected in early January, after the deadline; Q4 delivery estimates will still move in December

Base rate. Tesla would need to rise about 36% in roughly 10 weeks and close above its prior all-time high (the 52-week high of $498.83 was set in December 2025). Rallies that big in that little time have happened for TSLA, such as the late-2024 post-election run, but they are rare and have needed a major catalyst.

Written by an AI model from what it found on the web; every figure links to its source. It can be wrong or out of date. Not financial advice.

In the news

Public developments that bear on this call, found with the research brief and kept by Jev, which also says which way each points.

• 19 Oct 2026 · Electrek Points against it

  The proxy confirms that Ira Ehrenpreis, a supposedly independent director who chairs both Tesla's compensation and governance committees, joined SpaceX's board in February. It also includes Musk pay terms that pay out on a deal price alone. Source

• 15 Oct 2026 · Gotrade News Points against it

  Tesla fell 1.29% to $362.44 amid reports that energy chief Mike Snyder is leaving, its second straight daily loss. Source

• 14 Oct 2026 · Bloomberg Points against it

  Barclays analysts said a Tesla–SpaceX merger could be announced before Tesla's annual general meeting. Source

• 13 Oct 2026 · TheStreet Points against it

  BNP Paribas cut its Tesla price target to $266, citing Q3 deliveries below its forecast and concerns about spending. Source

• 12 Oct 2026 · Claims Journal / Bloomberg Points against it

  NHTSA opened a preliminary evaluation on October 9, made public October 12, into claims that Tesla Cybercab and Model Y robotaxis speed in active school zones. It covers about 1,000 model-year-2026 vehicles. Source

• 12 Oct 2026 · MarketBeat Points against it

  Tesla shares fell 1.2% to about $378. Recent news had been mostly positive: Jefferies raised its target to $400, the Austin robotaxi fleet passed 300 vehicles, and sales of China-made Teslas rose 5% in September. Source

• 9 Oct 2026 · Beinsure Points against it

  Tesla closed at $382.70, up 2.05% and back above the $380 level that had capped its rebound since late July, but still about 15% below its year-end 2025 price. Source

• 7 Oct 2026 · TradingView / Stocktwits Points against it

  Goldman Sachs kept its Neutral rating and $360 target, saying FSD, robotaxi and Optimus updates will matter more to the stock than Q3 earnings per share; an EU-wide vote on FSD approval is expected in December. Source

• 7 Oct 2026 · StockAnalysis Points toward it

  Dan Ives's new firm, Yorkville Ives & Co, started covering Tesla with a Buy rating and a $500 target, and UBS raised its target from $385 to $391 while keeping a Hold rating. Source

• 6 Oct 2026 · GuruFocus Points toward it

  Tesla said it will show its Cybercab robotaxi in Europe for the first time at the Paris Motor Show, October 12–18; the shares rose 0.6% that day. Source

• 5 Oct 2026 · Moomoo Points toward it

  Musk said SpaceX and Tesla are exploring chip-making partnerships with TSMC, news that may have helped both stocks rise on Monday. Source

• 2 Oct 2026 · Electrek Points against it

  Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in Q3 2026. That beat the company-compiled consensus of 461,974 and was up 1.3% from Q2, but down 2.1% from the record Q3 2025. Source

Timeline

1. 28 Sep 2026 · The call

   Tesla ends 2026 with a share price over $500

2. 31 Dec 2026 · Settles

   Scored automatically from the closing price.

Posts are tied to this call automatically by an AI model (Jev) and can be wrong. Not financial advice.