Called 29 Sept 2026 · settles 31 Dec 2026 (83 days to go)
OpenTesla has more autonomous robotaxis deployed than Waymo by the end of 2026
Jev's odds
4%chance it comes true
Down 12 points since the first reading on 29 Sept 2026.
Every reading
| Date | Odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | 4% | 30 |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 6% | 30 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 7% | 30 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 6% | 30 |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 6% | 27 |
| 4 Oct 2026 | 6% | 27 |
| 3 Oct 2026 | 6% | 27 |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 8% | 24 |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 8% | 24 |
| 30 Sept 2026 | 8% | 24 |
| 29 Sept 2026 | 16% | 6 |
How it's read
- 129 Sept 2026 · First reading. Adds public news: once a week an AI with web search gathers dated developments on the call, Jev keeps the ones that bear on it, and reads them with the evidence on this site. (jev-1.13.0)
- 230 Sept 2026 · New method. Adds a research brief from Claude Opus 5.5 with web search (weekly, twice weekly in the last 100 days): key numbers and financials, outside odds from prediction markets and analysts, dates coming up, the base rate, and the strongest case each way. Jev reads it with the news and the evidence on this site. (jev-1.13.0)
The odds move when the evidence does, and also when what Jev is given or Jev itself changes, so each change is marked. A model's reading, not a forecast; it can be wrong.
Research brief
From outside this site, by Claude Opus 5.5 with web search on 9 Oct 2026. Jev reads it every day.
The case for
Tesla's Cybercab registrations are compounding: Tesla added 111 Cybercabs over the span of the past two weeks alone, including 43 just between October 1 and 2. Giga Texas has installed capacity above 125,000 Cybercabs a year, and Texas also lists 420 Tesla Model Ys. If FSD v15 unlocks unsupervised operation for the whole fleet, and 'deployed' is counted loosely to include supervised cars, Tesla could in principle close the gap fast.
The case against
As of Oct 5, Waymo has more than 4,000 driverless vehicles against Tesla's ~180, and Waymo is adding thousands of Ojai units by year-end. To pass it, Tesla would need more than 4,000 new driverless cars in under 12 weeks, about 20 times its current fleet. Meanwhile Musk is stressing caution, an NHTSA audit of the Cybercab is open, and Morgan Stanley's bullish forecast is only ~1,500 by end-2026.
Outside odds
- Manifold (play-money) traders: Manifold traders put Tesla's odds of passing Waymo in robotaxis by Jan 2027 at just 13% as of July 28, 2026Tech Insider, 28 July 2026
- Morgan Stanley: Morgan Stanley projects ~1,500 vehicles by end-2026 for Tesla's robotaxi fleetThe Charge Port, 3 Oct 2026
- Manifold (play-money), related question on ride counts: A market on whether Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026 was at 27% chance; it counts private FSD rides, so it isn't a fleet-size questionManifold, 8 Oct 2026
Key numbers
- Driverless vehicles deployed, Waymo vs Tesla
- Roughly 4,000+ Waymo vehicles and ~180 Tesla robotaxis (about 50 to 1)
- Robotaxi Report · 5 Oct 2026
- Tesla Texas TxDMV-authorized robotaxi list
- 589 vehicles, of which 169 are 2026 Cybercabs and 420 are 2026 Model Ys; Waymo had 1,168 in Texas
- Musk Industries · 5 Oct 2026
- Waymo Ojai import pace
- on track to import 5,100 Ojai units by year-end for Texas, Florida and Las Vegas
- Robotaxi Report · 5 Oct 2026
- Cybercab production capacity
- Built at Giga Texas, with installed annual capacity above 125,000 units per Tesla's Q2 2026 manufacturing table
- The Charge Port · 3 Oct 2026
- Waymo weekly paid rides
- >500,000, against Waymo's stated goal of 1 million weekly rides by the end of 2026
- The Charge Port · 24 Sept 2026
Coming up
- Tesla Q3 2026 results and earnings call; possible fleet figures and robotaxi guidance
- Rough deadline for Tesla's reply to NHTSA's Cybercab audit query (30-day extension granted Sept 22)
- Possible FSD v15 release and 24/7 Austin service, which Tesla has tied to scaling (reported target: October)
- Settlement date; Waymo's 1M weekly rides goal and 20+ city target come due
Base rate. No company has gone from a few hundred driverless vehicles to more than 4,000 in under three months. Waymo itself took about 10 months to grow from ~2,500 (Nov 2025) to more than 4,000 (Sept 2026). Tesla's robotaxi fleet forecasts have repeatedly come in far below the numbers; Electrek's tally of misses included one bull predicted Tesla would surpass Waymo's entire fleet with 26,000 cars within a year.
Written by an AI model from what it found on the web; every figure links to its source. It can be wrong or out of date. Not financial advice.
In the news
Public developments that bear on this call, found with the research brief and kept by Jev, which also says which way each points.
4 Oct 2026 · TeslaNorth Points against it
Musk said the company is deliberately moving slowly with its robotaxi rollout after CNBC called the first month "rocky", and he described Tesla as "being extremely careful with autonomous safety" as it scales. Source
3 Oct 2026 · CNBC
Tesla had 45 Cybercabs authorized for commercial use in Texas at the time of its Austin unveiling, a number that rose to 169 as of Friday, according to Texas Department of Motor Vehicles' public records. Source
2 Oct 2026 · Basenor Points against it
According to the Texas DMV, Tesla has now registered 158 Cybercabs in the state, adding 32 vehicles in the latest batch. That's a fleet that went from 69 registered units on September 23 to 158 by October 2. Source
29 Sept 2026 · Eletric-vehicles.com Points against it
NHTSA opened an Audit Query on September 3, the day Tesla began commercial Cybercab service in Austin, Texas, and escalated it a week later with the Special Order; Tesla was later given a 30-day extension to respond. Source
24 Sept 2026 · TechCrunch Points against it
About 80% of Waymo's roughly 4,000 robotaxis are in California and Texas, and Waymo's Texas fleet has grown by nearly half in the past three weeks, fueled by a new Chinese-built minivan. Source
14 Sept 2026 · TechCrunch Points against it
Waymo opened public robotaxi service in Las Vegas starting with 'dozens' of Ojai minivans, and said its total fleet is more than 4,000 robotaxis across over a dozen cities. Source
14 Sept 2026 · Electric Vehicles (eletric-vehicles.com) Points against it
The founder of Robotaxi Tracker said a widely shared figure of 1,000 Tesla robotaxis was wrong, and gave 311 active vehicles in the past 30 days as the more accurate figure. Source
3 Sept 2026 · Electrek / KuCoin News Points against it
At its Cybercab event, Tesla said its Robotaxis have driven a total of 1 million miles without a human driver supervising them, and reports put the fleet at around 200 vehicles now operating without human oversight. Source
3 Sept 2026 · Wikipedia (Tesla Robotaxi) Points against it
NHTSA opened Audit Query AQ26002 into Tesla's self-certification that the Cybercab complies with applicable Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards after the vehicle entered paid service in Austin. Source
1 Sept 2026 · TechCrunch Points against it
Waymo has started to offer its robotaxi service to the public in Denver, San Diego, and Tampa, extending the Alphabet-owned company's commercial operations to 14 U.S. cities. Source
22 July 2026 · Not a Tesla App Points toward it
In its Q2 results Tesla said unsupervised Robotaxi service had reached seven metros, including Miami, Orlando and Tampa, with 380,000 cumulative unsupervised miles; it also said the rollout is being held back to avoid incidents. Source
22 July 2026 · Yahoo Finance transcript / CNBC Points against it
In its Q2 results Tesla said it expanded to a total of seven markets in the U.S. We expect the ramp of the fleet to accelerate throughout the year, but Musk warned "We need to be cautious about causing any accidents or causing any harm to anyone". Source
Timeline
29 Sept 2026 · The call
Tesla has more autonomous robotaxis deployed than Waymo by the end of 2026
31 Dec 2026 · Settles
I'll mark it right or wrong once it's settled.
Posts are tied to this call automatically by an AI model (Jev) and can be wrong. Not financial advice.
