Tesla has more autonomous robotaxis deployed than Waymo by the end of 2026

Jev's odds

8%chance it comes true

Down 8 points since the first reading on 29 Sep 2026.

How it's read

1. 129 Sep 2026 · First reading. Adds public news: once a week an AI with web search gathers dated developments on the call, Jev keeps the ones that bear on it, and reads them with the evidence on this site. (jev-1.13.0)
2. 230 Sep 2026 · New method. Adds a research brief from Claude Opus 5.5 with web search (weekly, twice weekly in the last 100 days): key numbers and financials, outside odds from prediction markets and analysts, dates coming up, the base rate, and the strongest case each way. Jev reads it with the news and the evidence on this site. (jev-1.13.0)

The odds move when the evidence does, and also when what Jev is given or Jev itself changes, so each change is marked. A model's reading, not a forecast; it can be wrong.

Research brief

From outside this site, by Claude Opus 5.5 with web search on 21 Oct 2026. Jev reads it every day.

Outside odds

• Manifold (play-money forecasting): Manifold traders put Tesla's odds of passing Waymo in robotaxis by Jan 2027 at just 13% as of July 28, 2026Tech Insider, 28 Jul 2026
• Manifold (play-money forecasting): On a related question about ride counts, the market implies about a 8 percent chance that Tesla finishes 2026 with more fully autonomous rides than WaymoTech Insider, 18 Jul 2026
• Morgan Stanley: Morgan Stanley projects ~1,500 vehicles by end-2026 for Tesla's robotaxi fleetThe Charge Port, 25 Sep 2026

Key numbers

Waymo fleet (current)

~4,000 vehicles; target 8,000 by end-2026

GV Wire / Reuters (citing Semafor) · 19 Oct 2026

Deployed driverless vehicles, Waymo vs Tesla (US)

Roughly 4,000+ Waymo vehicles and ~300 Tesla robotaxis (~50-to-1)

Robotaxi Report · 12 Oct 2026

Tesla Texas AV registrations

Approximately 319 Cybercabs and 420 Model Y robotaxis (~739 total)

The Motley Fool / Texas DMV data · 10 Oct 2026

Waymo Texas AV registrations

~1,185 (vs Tesla's 739); in the past 30 days Tesla added ~302 vs Waymo's ~197

Tech Insider · 15 Oct 2026

Cybercab installed capacity at Giga Texas

Installed annual capacity above 125,000 units per Tesla's Q2 2026 manufacturing table

The Charge Port · 22 Jul 2026

Waymo Ojai imports planned

On track to import 5,100 Ojai units by year-end for Texas, Florida and Las Vegas

Robotaxi Report · 12 Oct 2026

Coming up

• 21 Oct 2026Tesla Q3 2026 earnings and call (5:30 p.m. ET); could give a fleet count or year-end robotaxi guidance
• 31 Oct 2026Approximate deadline for Tesla's answers to NHTSA on Cybercab and the robotaxi review (reported as due by month-end)
• 3 Dec 2026Tesla annual shareholder meeting
• 31 Dec 2026Settlement date; Waymo's 8,000-vehicle year-end target vs Tesla's deployed fleet

Base rate. Musk's robotaxi fleet targets have repeatedly slipped: in October 2025, Musk proclaimed that Tesla should have "500 Robotaxis" in Austin by the end of the year. In November, he revised the number down to about 60. Going from about a 13x gap (Tesla's ~300 driverless vs Waymo's ~4,000) to overtaking a fast-growing leader in about 10 weeks would have no precedent in the robotaxi industry.

Written by an AI model from what it found on the web; every figure links to its source. It can be wrong or out of date. Not financial advice.

In the news

Public developments that bear on this call, found with the research brief and kept by Jev, which also says which way each points.

• 19 Oct 2026 · AI Weekly (citing Semafor) Points against it

  Waymo told Semafor it plans to double its robotaxi fleet to 8,000 vehicles by the end of 2026 and reach 20,000 by the end of 2027, up from roughly 4,000 today, funded by a $5 billion private-credit raise. Source

• 15 Oct 2026 · The Motley Fool Points against it

  Tesla's fleet is still only a few hundred vehicles, and The Motley Fool said it is completely unrealistic to think Tesla will ramp up production of the Cybercab -- or its other vehicles -- to catch up to Waymo in the near term. Source

• 10 Oct 2026 · The Motley Fool Points toward it

  On Oct. 10, Tesla announced the milestone on X through its official Robotaxi account. Shortly afterward, Ashok Elluswamy, the company's vice president of artificial intelligence software, indicated that Dallas would be the next city to receive Cybercab service. The milestone was more than 300 Cybercabs in Austin, an eightfold rise in 30 days. Source

• 10 Oct 2026 · Tech Insider Points against it

  Registry data puts Tesla's whole autonomous fleet in Texas at 739, still trailing Waymo's 1,185 in that one state. Source

• 10 Oct 2026 · Teslarati Points toward it

  Tesla's official Robotaxi account said it now has more than 300 Cybercabs serving Austin, which it called an 8x increase in 30 days, and AI chief Ashok Elluswamy said Dallas is next. Source

• 9 Oct 2026 · EV (eletric-vehicles.com) Points toward it

  Tesla put 150 more Cybercabs on the Texas automated-vehicle registry, its largest single addition so far, which took its total there to 739 vehicles (up from 589); only 325 of those have been matched to a sighting, 153 of them in the past 30 days. Source

• 8 Oct 2026 · NextBigFuture Points toward it

  Tesla added 150 Cybercabs to the Texas automated vehicle registry, taking its registered Cybercab count to 319 from 169, while the community site RobotaxiTracker counted about 375 active unsupervised Tesla robotaxis. Source

• 4 Oct 2026 · TeslaNorth Points against it

  Musk said the company is deliberately moving slowly with its robotaxi rollout after CNBC called the first month "rocky", and he described Tesla as "being extremely careful with autonomous safety" as it scales. Source

• 3 Oct 2026 · CNBC

  Tesla had 45 Cybercabs authorized for commercial use in Texas at the time of its Austin unveiling, a number that rose to 169 as of Friday, according to Texas Department of Motor Vehicles' public records. Source

• 2 Oct 2026 · Basenor Points against it

  According to the Texas DMV, Tesla has now registered 158 Cybercabs in the state, adding 32 vehicles in the latest batch. That's a fleet that went from 69 registered units on September 23 to 158 by October 2. Source

• 29 Sep 2026 · Eletric-vehicles.com Points against it

  NHTSA opened an Audit Query on September 3, the day Tesla began commercial Cybercab service in Austin, Texas, and escalated it a week later with the Special Order; Tesla was later given a 30-day extension to respond. Source

• 24 Sep 2026 · TechCrunch Points against it

  About 80% of Waymo's roughly 4,000 robotaxis are in California and Texas, and Waymo's Texas fleet has grown by nearly half in the past three weeks, fueled by a new Chinese-built minivan. Source

Timeline

1. 29 Sep 2026 · The call

   Tesla has more autonomous robotaxis deployed than Waymo by the end of 2026

2. 31 Dec 2026 · Settles

   I'll mark it right or wrong once it's settled.

Posts are tied to this call automatically by an AI model (Jev) and can be wrong. Not financial advice.