Week 42, 2026
Week of 12 – 18 Oct 2026
3 of 28 public holdings rose, with an average move of −9.0% against −1.9% for the S&P 500.
Biggest moves
From the notebook
Note of the week
Micron's fiscal 2026: revenue up 256pc to $133bn, a record year
The one that matters most to a long-term holder, weighed by Jev.
By the numbers
26 of 28 public holdings fell on 16 October
On 16 October, 26 of the 28 listed public holdings dropped, with only Apple (+0.4%) and BYD (+0.1%) in the green. Losses ranged from a 0.9% dip at Bank of America to a 12.2% slide at Nebius. That's a broad single-day move across chips, cloud and crypto names together, not one or two laggards dragging the average down.
Since this note:Nebius −3.8%Bank of America −0.3%Apple +1.4%BYD −6.0%(S&P 500 +0.1%)
Big & small
BYD's launch pace collides with AutoGrab's valuation job
BYD launches the second-generation Seagull in China on 20 October, bringing a longer body and more power, with the third-generation Tang, Seal 07 and two Fangchengbao trucks also due before year end. Melbourne's AutoGrab sells dealers, insurers and lenders live valuations for cars already on the road, work that gets harder every time a maker resets a model's size, spec and price. BYD keeps flooding yards with new metal. AutoGrab has to keep pricing all of it.
Since this note:BYD −6.0%(S&P 500 +0.1%)
Then & now
Micron's fiscal 2026: revenue up 256pc to $133bn, a record year
Micron's fiscal 2026 revenue hit $133.2bn, up 256% on the year before. Earnings per share jumped from $7.59 to $74.33, and the business went from an afterthought in most portfolios to a roughly $1.1 trillion megacap in about 18 months. The stock is still up 385% over the past year even after slipping 26% from its June high.
Since this note:Micron −2.5%(S&P 500 +0.1%)
Big mover
Cloudflare drops 18pc from its record high set just 10 days ago
Cloudflare shares are down 17.9% over the past week, extending a slide from their $370 all-time high set on 6 October. Traders point to no single corporate trigger, just profit-taking on a stock trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple above 270 times, plus insiders selling $138.2m of stock in the past 90 days. Even after the drop, the shares are still up 57.4% for the year.
Since this note:Cloudflare +2.5%(S&P 500 +0.1%)
Theme
The big four hyperscalers push 2026 AI capex toward $725bn combined
Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet raised or reaffirmed 2026 capital spending plans this earnings season, pushing the combined total across the four largest hyperscalers, Amazon included, toward $725bn. Amazon's own guidance climbed to roughly $220bn as AWS growth accelerated, while Microsoft's figure sits near $175bn after an accounting change. Watch how much of that extra spend is new capacity versus just paying more for the same chips.
Since this note:Microsoft −3.4%Amazon −1.7%Alphabet −7.2%Meta −11.9%(S&P 500 −1.0%)
Connections
Tesla's next chip splits production between TSMC and Samsung
Tesla's upcoming AI5 chip, built for Optimus and future self-driving hardware, is dual sourced: Samsung runs a 2nm line in Texas, TSMC a 3nm line in Arizona, producing slightly different silicon meant to behave the same on Tesla's software. Musk also cut the chip's onboard memory from 144GB to 72GB to free up supply for Optimus, then revised it back up to 96GB days later. The back and forth shows how tight memory and foundry capacity still are even for a customer the size of Tesla.
Since this note:Tesla +3.3%TSMC −2.3%(S&P 500 −1.0%)
People
OpenAI poaches a second SpaceX sales executive in a month
OpenAI has hired Ismail Elmas, who ran Cursor's European business, as its vice president of sales for EMEA, its second sales hire from SpaceX in a month. Elmas moved to SpaceX when it bought Cursor for $60bn in a deal that closed on 14 August, and follows Brian McCarthy, who went from Cursor's global revenue role into SpaceX before leaving for OpenAI's top sales job. The churn shows Musk's SpaceX now losing commercial talent to the AI lab it competes with on compute and models.
Since this note:SpaceX −4.9%(S&P 500 −0.7%)
On the map
A restricted AMD chip turns up in a Chinese crowdfunding project
An analyst flagged a Chinese crowdfunded project this September using a heavily restricted, military-grade AMD chip that normally requires a US export licence, sparking a dispute over how it got there. The case surfaced in the same weeks that Taiwan indicted nine people over an alleged scheme to illegally export Nvidia B300 GPUs to China. Together they show how hard Washington's chip export controls are to enforce once hardware crosses borders, a live risk for any chipmaker selling into Asia.
Since this note:AMD −11.0%TSMC −4.1%(S&P 500 −0.7%)
What could go wrong
Nine in ten VMware customers are shopping for alternatives to Broadcom
A Rimini Street-commissioned survey of 269 VMware users found 90% are exploring alternatives over licensing costs, and 48% have no plans to move workloads onto Broadcom's preferred VCF subscription platform. Infrastructure software, built on VMware, still grew 29% last quarter and leans on AI demand elsewhere to cover the gap. Customer resistance at this scale is a slow-burn risk to a business Broadcom is counting on for high-margin, recurring revenue.
Since this note:Broadcom −9.5%(S&P 500 −1.8%)
Coming up
Bank of America reports Q3 numbers on 14 October
Bank of America posts third-quarter results before the bell on 14 October, with analysts expecting around $1.11 a share on roughly $30.6bn in revenue. Estimates have been trimmed over the past month as investors weigh net interest income, deposit costs and credit performance against a recent bank selloff. The print follows JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley's own Q3 reports this week.
Since this note:Bank of America −5.3%(S&P 500 −1.8%)
Heard on X
IREN's AI cloud stack gets an Nvidia hypervisor tick
IREN posted that Mirantis has completed NVIDIA-Certified Hypervisor validation for k0rdent AI's virtualisation stack running on IREN's cloud, as an inaugural partner of Nvidia's AI Cloud Ready Initiative. The certification means AI customers can run workloads on IREN's GPUs without losing the flexibility of a virtualised setup. It fits a pattern: IREN keeps stacking up infrastructure partnerships to look less like a bitcoin miner with spare power and more like a dedicated AI cloud.
Since this note:IREN −26.7%(S&P 500 −1.8%)
Startup watch
Chipper Cash enters Ghana's SEC sandbox for brokerage
Chipper Cash has received approval to join Ghana's Securities and Exchange Commission regulatory sandbox, which lets it test new products with partners under supervision. The African fintech, already known for cross-border payments and virtual USD cards, is using the sandbox to trial virtual and digital brokerage services as it explores digital asset trading. It's a testing licence, not a launch, but it points to investing being the next product Chipper wants to bring to its users.
By the numbers
Xanadu is back below its IPO price after a 5x rally and crash
Xanadu's 52-week high is $42.44, hit in April. Its listing price in March works out to about $8, found by dividing today's $3.90 by the 51.3% drop since listing. So the stock rallied more than fivefold after its debut, then gave back 89.2% of that peak, and now sits below where it started.
Since this note:Xanadu −30.5%(S&P 500 −1.9%)
Big & small
Tencent's AI ad engine scales across WeChat, iion's fits inside one game
Tencent's marketing arm took in 43.6 billion yuan last quarter, up 22% year on year, as its AI ad model picked better matches inside WeChat and its games. Sydney's iion runs a similar idea at a different scale, matching brand ads to players inside game publishers' titles rather than a billion-user messaging app. One sells attention across a continent-sized platform, the other inside a single game session.
Since this note:Tencent −9.2%(S&P 500 −1.9%)
Bank of America
BYD
AutoGrab
Micron
Cloudflare
Microsoft
Amazon
Alphabet
Meta
Tesla
TSMC
AMD
Broadcom
Chipper Cash
Tencent
iionMost liked on X
SpaceX@SpaceX · 16 OctGo for launch 🚀3991.6K20.3K- SpaceX@SpaceX · 16 OctFalcon 9’s first stage lands on the Of Course I Still Love You droneship
3601.2K14.8K - SpaceX@SpaceX · 16 OctWe will post our Q3 2026 financial and operational results on October 20, 2026. We will host a live audio-only webcast at 3:30 p.m. CT the same day → https://ir.spacex.com/updates/releases-details/2026/SpaceX-to-Post-Third-Quarter-2026-Results-and-Host-Webcast-on-October-20-2026-2026-QssQGye3im/default.aspx
2939828.6K - SpaceX@SpaceX · 16 OctFalcon 9 launches USSF-481 to orbit from pad 4E in California
3519218.1K
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Notes are written by AI and can be wrong; check the sources. Share-price moves run from the last close before the week to the last close in it. Not financial advice.
